Week 7 Matchups That Matter: Get-Right Spot For Jayden Daniels

Welcome to Week 7’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 7 Rankings and your Team Intel page for personalized advice.

Good luck in Week 7!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Commanders at Cowboys (54.5)
2. Buccaneers at Lions (52.5)
3. Colts at Chargers (48.5)
4. Falcons at 49ers (47.5)
5. Raiders at Chiefs (45.5)

Lowest Game Totals

11. Patriots at Titans (42.0)
12. Texans at Seahawks (41.5)
13. Panthers at Jets (41.0)
14. Giants at Broncos (40.5)
15. Dolphins at Browns (34.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Lions (29.25)
2. Chiefs (29.0)
3. Cowboys (28.0)
4. Commanders (26.5)
5. Packers (25.75)
6. Chargers (25.5)
7. Steelers (25.25)

Fewest Projected Points

25. Cardinals (18.75)
26. Browns (18.5)
27. Titans (17.5)
t-28. Raiders (16.5)
t-28. Giants (16.5)
30. Dolphins (16.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Chiefs (63.7)
2. Browns (63.6)
3. Saints (63.4)
t-4. Chargers (63.3)
t-4. Broncos (63.3)
6. Cowboys (63.2)
7. Jaguars (63.1)

Fewest Projected Plays

24. Texans (60.8)
25. Cardinals (60.7)
26. Jets (60.6)
27. Raiders (60.5)
28. Bengals (60.4)
29. Dolphins (59.7)
30. Titans (59.5)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Saints at Bears (25.6 seconds)
2. Rams vs. Jaguars (25.9 seconds)
3. Dolphins at Browns (27.3 seconds)
4. Commanders at Cowboys (27.4 seconds)
5. Patriots at Titans (27.6 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

11. Texans at Seahawks (28.7 seconds)
12. Packers at Cardinals (28.8 seconds)
13. Buccaneers at Lions (28.8 seconds)
14. Raiders at Chiefs (29.0 seconds)
15. Panthers at Jets (29.5 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Dolphins at Browns

There's a wind advisory in effect in Cleveland until noon ET. The worst of it will be gone by kickoff, but we're still looking at winds around 20 mph with gusts of 30-35. There's also likely to be rain during this game. Ugly weather -- and certainly enough to impact the offenses. The over/under on this game has dropped from 39.5 on Thursday to 34.5. That's the lowest for any game this season.

Expect both teams to lean more on the run and short-passing games. We'd avoid both QBs and Ks from this game. We've also moved Jaylen Waddle down the Week 7 WR rankings, although he remains in WR2 territory.

Saints at Bears

The forecast calls for winds of 15 mph with gusts around 30. That's enough to impact the passing and kicking games. We've made some projection docks to both passing games, although guys like QB Caleb Williams and WRs Rome Odunze and Chris Olave can remain in fantasy lineups. Avoid both kickers in this game. The over/under in this one has dropped from 46.5 to 44.5.

Patriots at Titans

Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts around 25-30. That'll likely impact deep passes and longer FGs. Hopefully you're not relying on Tennessee's passing game. QB Drake Maye, WR Stefon Diggs, and TE Hunter Henry are fine to keep in fantasy lineups. Try not to use the kickers in this game.

Panthers at Jets

Similar weather as Nashville: Winds around 15 mph with gusts of 25-30. There wasn't likely to be much passing production in this game anyways, but WR Tetairoa McMillan and TE Mason Taylor are fine to keep in fantasy lineups. Stay away from the kickers.

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Commanders at Cowboys (+79.5%)
2. Patriots at Titans (+58.2%)
3. Bears vs. Saints (54.2%)
4. Lions vs. Buccaneers (52.9%)
5. Steelers at Bengals (+51.7%)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

26. Vikings vs. Eagles (-2.2%)
27. Giants at Broncos (-5.9%)
28. Cardinals vs. Packers (-6.7%)
29. Raiders at Chiefs (-9.2%)
30. Bengals vs. Steelers (-21.2%)

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jayden Daniels at Cowboys (+45.0%)
2. Aaron Rodgers at Bengals (+29.5%)
3. Dak Prescott vs. Commanders (+26.5%)
4. Spencer Rattler at Bears (+22.6%)
5. Dillon Gabriel vs. Dolphins (+21.2%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Patrick Mahomes vs. Raiders (-23.1%)
27. Drake Maye at Titans (-25.1%)
28. Mac Jones vs. Falcons (-27.4%)
29. Jaxson Dart at Broncos (-29.2%)
30. Sam Darnold vs. Texans (-48.5%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Colts at Chargers (+2.7%)
2. Steelers at Bengals (-0.9%)
3. Commanders at Cowboys (-2.0%)
4. Broncos vs. Giants (-4.0%)
5. Chiefs vs. Raiders (-6.9%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

t-26. Raiders at Chiefs (-37.4%)
t-26. Titans vs. Patriots (-37.4%)
28. Dolphins at Browns (-38.3%)
29. Jets vs. Panthers (-40.5%)
30. Texans at Seahawks (-44.0%)

5 Best RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Commanders at Cowboys (+64.7%)
2. Steelers at Bengals (+33.6%)
3. Patriots at Titans (+29.9%)
4. Saints at Bears (+23.6%)
5. Browns vs. Dolphins (+22.0%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed

26. Titans vs. Patriots (-23.3%)
27. Jaguars vs. Rams (-27.9%)
28. Dolphins at Browns (-34.5%)
29. Cardinals vs. Packers (-36.8%)
30. 49ers vs. Falcons (-40.9%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Commanders at Cowboys (+59.2%)
2. Buccaneers at Lions (+16.5%)
3. Rams vs. Jaguars (+15.2%)
4. Titans vs. Patriots (+12.4%)
5. Texans at Seahawks (+11.5%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Giants at Broncos (-24.1%)
27. Vikings vs. Eagles (-26.2%)
28. Colts at Chargers (-26.9%)
29. Seahawks vs. Texans (-31.7%)
30. Eagles at Vikings (-40.3%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle vs. Browns CBs Tyson Campbell and Denzel Ward

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Rams CB Emmanuel Forbes

Chargers WRs Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and Keenan Allen vs. Colts CBs Mekhi Blackmon, Johnathan Edwards, and Chris Lammons

Commanders WRs Chris Moore, Luke McCaffrey, and Jaylin Lane vs. Cowboys CBs Kaiir Elam, DaRon Bland, and Reddy Stewart

Patriots WRs Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte vs. Titans CBs L'Jarius Sneed and Jalyn Armour-Davis

Browns WRs Jerry Jeudy and Isaiah Bond vs. Dolphins CBs Rasul Douglas and Jack Jones

Saints WR Rashid Shaheed vs. Bears CBs Tyrique Stevenson and Nahshon Wright

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Cowboys WR George Pickens vs. Commanders CBs Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos

Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable) vs. Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie

Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Jaguars WR Travis Hunter vs. Rams CB Quentin Lake

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Steelers at Bengals (+40.7%)
2. Texans at Seahawks (+39.8%)
3. Jets vs. Panthers (+39.1%)
4. Bengals vs. Steelers (+34.9%)
5. Chargers vs. Colts (+30.5%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Colts at Chargers (-20.8%)
27. Giants at Broncos (-29.0%)
28. Raiders at Chiefs (-29.9%)
29. Vikings vs. Eagles (-38.0%)
30. 49ers vs. Falcons (-64.0%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Dolphins at Browns (+153.2%)
2. Panthers at Jets (+118.6%)
3. Eagles at Vikings (+110.2%)
4. Patriots at Titans (+69.0%)
5. Broncos vs. Giants (+64.8%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Texans at Seahawks (-54.5%)
27. Raiders at Chiefs (-55.8%)
28. Commanders at Cowboys (-70.5%)
29. Buccaneers at Lions (-74.4%)
30. Chargers vs. Colts (-92.6%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Ryan Fitzgerald at Jets (+59.1%)
2. Andre Szmyt vs. Dolphins (+39.9%)
3. Matt Gay at Cowboys (+33.6%)
4. Jude McAtamney at Broncos (+28.7%)
5. Eddy Pineiro vs. Falcons (+27.3%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Chase McLaughlin at Lions (-21.6%)
27. Cameron Dicker vs. Colts (-21.9%)
28. Joshua Karty at Jaguars (-33.3%)
29. John Parker Romo at 49ers (-35.8%)
30. Jason Myers vs. Texans (-76.6%)