Week 9 Matchups That Matter: How Many Dolphins Can You Trust?

Welcome to Week 9’s Matchups That Matter.

This article gives you a peek at the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 9 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 9!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Bengals vs. Falcons (52.5)
2. Raiders at 49ers (52.0)
3. Cowboys at Colts (51.5)
4. Lions at Dolphins (50.5)

Lowest Game Totals

12. Texans at Chargers (40.5)
13. Jaguars at Ravens (40.0)
14. Cardinals at Seahawks (39.5)
15. Giants at Eagles (38.0)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week.

Highest Projected Points

1. 49ers (30.75)
2. Chiefs (28.75)
3. Lions (28.5)
t-4. Cowboys (28.0)
t-4. Bengals (28.0)
6. Bears (27.0)
7. Rams (26.0)

Lowest Projected Points

27. Eagles (17.75)
28. Chargers (17.5)
29. Cardinals (15.5)
30. Ravens (15.25)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Bears (64.3)
t-2. Saints (63.9)
t-2. Rams (63.9)
4. Bengals (63.7)
t-5. Cowboys (63.2)
t-5. Panthers (63.2)

Fewest Projected Plays

26. Cardinals (60.8)
27. Eagles (60.5)
28. Jets (60.3)
29. Buccaneers (59.9)
30. Ravens (59.1)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the seconds per snap from both teams in each game. I'm using the last five week's worth of data to get a fresher look.

Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

1. Raiders at 49ers (27.65 seconds)
2. Cardinals at Seahawks (27.75 seconds)
3. Cowboys at Colts (27.85 seconds)
4. Giants at Eagles (28.1 seconds)
5. Browns at Saints (28.2 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

11. Packers at Patriots (29.5 seconds)
12. Texans at Chargers (30.0 seconds)
13. Jaguars at Ravens (30.45 seconds)
14. Buccaneers at Bears (30.85 seconds)
15. Bills at Vikings (31.05 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Packers at Patriots

This is the windiest game in a quiet week of weather. The forecast calls for winds of 10 mph with gusts of 20-25. That could end up impacting kicks and deep passes, but it's not enough to adjust projections.

Giants at Eagles

A bit less windy than New England: 10 mph sustained with gusts up around 20. No impact to projections. Both teams were already likely to lean on the run in this one.

Quarterback

Pass Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA allowed per pass through 8 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Pass Defense Power," which averages those 4 metrics.

Week 9 Passing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Pass Offense Power vs. their opponent's Pass Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best QB Matchups

1. Malik Willis vs. Lions (+43.7%)
2. Drew Lock vs. Cardinals (+38.4%)
3. Matthew Stafford at Commanders (+36.8%)
4. Daniel Jones vs. Cowboys (+27.4%)
5. Baker Mayfield at Bears (+23.5%)

5 Worst QB Matchups

26. Drake Maye vs. Packers (-21.1%)
27. C.J. Stroud at Chargers (-29.4%)
28. Caleb Williams vs. Buccaneers (-34.1%)
29. Gardner Minshew at Seahawks (-40.1%)
30. Josh Allen at Vikings (-52.8%)

Running Back

Run Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush through 8 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Run Defense Power," which averages those 3 metrics.

Week 9 Rushing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Run Offense Power vs. their opponent's Run Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best RB Matchups

1. Colts vs. Cowboys (+39.2%)
2. Browns at Saints (+33.5%)
3. Broncos at Panthers (+21.8%)
4. Lions at Dolphins (+21.4%)
5. Vikings vs. Bills (+20.0%)

5 Worst RB Matchups

26. Seahawks vs. Cardinals (-15.9%)
27. Ravens vs. Jaguars (-16.0%)
28. Packers at Patriots (-18.8%)
29. Bills at Vikings (-21.7%)
30. Bears vs. Buccaneers (-24.8%)

Wide Receiver

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed. 

5 Best WR Matchups

1. Dolphins vs. Lions (+21.4%)
2. Vikings vs. Bills (+21.3%)
3. Chargers vs. Texans (+19.4%)
4. Ravens vs. Jaguars (+17.8%)
5. Colts vs. Cowboys (+14.5%)

5 Worst WR Matchups

26. Cowboys at Colts (-13.8%)
27. Lions at Dolphins (-20.2%)
28. Cardinals at Seahawks (-20.9%)
29. Bears vs. Buccaneers (-21.2%)
30. Bills at Vikings (-23.3%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Rams WR Puka Nacua vs. Commanders CBs Rasul Douglas, Trey Amos, and Amik Robertson

Lions WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams vs. Dolphins CBs Chris Johnson, Jason Marshall, and Julius Brents

Broncos WRs Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton vs. Panthers CBs Chau Smith-Wade and Malcolm Dewalt

Browns WRs Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Jonas Sanker

Jets WR Omar Cooper vs. Chiefs CB Christian Roland-Wallace

Dolphins WR Malik Washington vs. Lions CB Roger McCreary

Cowboys WR Ryan Flournoy vs. Colts CB Kenneth Harris

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Falcons WR Drake London vs. Bengals CB D.J. Turner

Cardinals WR Michael Wilson vs. Seahawks CBs Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, and Nick Emmanwori

Bills WRs D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman vs. Vikings CBs Isaiah Rodgers, Byron Murphy, and James Pierre

Panthers WRs Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Ja'Quan McMillian, and Riley Moss

Raiders WR Tre Tucker vs. 49ers Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green

Tight End

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best TE Matchups

1. Rams at Commanders (+97.7%)
2. Dolphins vs. Lions (+88.5%)
3. Jets at Chiefs (+69.9%)
4. Falcons vs. Bengals (+52.7%)
5. 49ers vs. Raiders (+36.4%)

5 Worst TE Matchups

26. Cardinals at Seahawks (-30.8%)
27. Patriots vs. Packers (-32.1%)
28. Commanders vs. Rams (-37.4%)
29. Bills at Vikings (-42.7%)
30. Texans at Chargers (-43.1%)

Defense/Special Teams

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best DST Matchups

1. Texans at Chargers (+116.1%)
2. Eagles vs. Giants (+74.3%)
3. Bengals at Falcons (+47.2%)
4. Cardinals at Seahawks (+44.0%)
5. Saints vs. Browns (+37.6%)

5 Worst DST Matchups

26. Vikings vs. Bills (-52.4%)
27. 49ers vs. Raiders (-54.9%)
28. Ravens vs. Jaguars (-55.5%)
29. Colts vs. Cowboys (-55.6%)
30. Dolphins vs. Lions (-57.2%)

Kicker

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best K Matchups

1. Brandon McManus at Commanders (+31.6%)
2. Matt Gay at 49ers (+31.1%)
3. Drew Stevens vs. Rams (+28.3%)
4. Dominic Zvada at Eagles (+25.0%)
5. Brandon Aubrey at Colts (+24.3%)

5 Worst K Matchups

26. Tyler Bass at Vikings (-23.4%)
27. Jake Moody vs. Jaguars (-34.0%)
28. Chase McLaughlin at Bears (-40.9%)
29. Andres Borregales vs. Packers (-44.3%)
30. Zane Gonzalez vs. Lions (-51.1%)