Fantasy Football Start Sit Week 9: Which Kyle Pitts is the Real One?
The fantasy season is entering its stretch run, and every lineup decision matters. Week 9 brings tough matchups, key byes, and a few breakout opportunities that could swing your playoff push.
The right lineup decisions, powered by Draft Sharks rankings, can make all the difference.
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Quarterback to Start
A high rushing floor meets a high passing ceiling.
Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins
Malik Willis ranks as the QB7 since Week 5. Even his worst performance over the past four weeks was a QB15 finish against a Patriots defense that was reducing QB points by the seventh-most among defenses.
His passing efficiency has been suspect. His 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt ranks 23rd among QBs, and his 3.3% passing-TD rate ranks 26th. But he’s providing high-end rushing production.
Willis is posting 5.8 rushing points per game to trail only Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels among QBs.
Week 9 brings a Lions defense that’s allowing the most points to QBs, including at least 2 passing TDs in every game. That defense will also miss MLB Jack Campbell (neck injury) and likely miss S Brian Branch (concussion).
In a week filled with QB injuries, trades, and byes, you can feel comfortable with Willis in your lineup.
QB to Sit
Was the beginning of the season a mirage?
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
It’s been a forgettable past two weeks for Bryce Young, who ranks as the QB30 over that span. He’s thrown 3 INTs over the past two games, second-most at the position since Week 7.
His 186.0 passing yards per game rank 25th among QBs while his 1.0 passing TDs per game sit 19th over that span.
That slump has come against stiff competition: a Buccaneers defense allowing the third-fewest points to QBs and a Packers defense allowing the fifth-fewest.
That makes Young tough to project favorably against a Broncos defense that’s already reducing QB points by 0.7% and just got former defensive player of the year Pat Surtain II back last week from his ankle injury.
Sit Young in Week 9.
Running Backs to Start
Don’t fall for the one-week workload slip.
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
Ashton Jeanty is coming off a season-low touch count in Week 8, watching Mike Washington out-carry him 25-2. Yet Jeanty still finished as the Raiders’ highest-scoring RB.
He scored 10.3 PPR points to Washington’s 8.3 after turning his only fourth-quarter rush attempt into an 8-yard gain and coming away with 45 yards on his lone reception in the second half (amid a 3-64 receiving line overall).
Washington managed just 3.3 yards per carry, barely ahead of Jeanty’s 3.1-yard average leading up to Week 8. That's not a good way to earn more carries going forward.
Jeanty remains one of the highest-volume receiving backs, commanding a 17.2% target share that trails only Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs. Even his 2-carry game included a 16.0% target share that ranked ninth among RBs for the week.
Now comes a a 49ers defense that’s allowing the most receptions to RBs. Keep Jeanty in your lineup.
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns
Quinshon Judkins is coming off a season-low 6.9 PPR points. But he played a season-low 39.0% snap share vs. Dylan Sampson’s 55.7%.
Blame a trailing game script in a 27-6 loss that forced the Browns to go pass-happy. Judkins still drew a season-high 78.6% carry share.
Sampson has totaled 11 targets in two games back from his five-week knee injury. His 14.7% target share ranks 10th among RBs over that span and positions him as the backfield receiving leader. Judkins’ season rate sits at just 10.4%, even with the boost of Sampson’s missed time. That’s 10th-lowest among
Which surpasses Judkins’ season-long 10.4% target share that’s 10th-lowest among 28 RBs averaging with at least a 55% snap share.
We’re not expecting the Browns to trail the Saints like that this week. And if Cleveland keeps it close, Judkins can take advantage of a Saints defense allowing the fourth-most total points instead of a Steelers defense that was allowing the third-fewest.
Judkins can confidently return to your lineups in a much more favorable matchup.
RBs to Sit
An underwhelming return for one, and an unlikely return for another.
All Seattle Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet made his season debut in Week 8 after an ACL injury ended his playoff run prematurely last season. RB Jadarian Price also returned from an IR stint for a chest injury that had kept him out since Week 3.
Price got the larger workload, handling a career-high 52.6% carry share while matching Charbonnet for the backfield lead in target share at 11.8%.
That left Charbonnet with a 31.6% carry share that ranked 36th among RBs last week, which he turned into 23 rushing yards (37th).
But Price also struggled to find productivity, finishing with just 5.7 PPR points to rank RB39 on the week. It was his second straight game with 3.0 yards per carry or less.
Now that split, inefficient backfield joins backup QB Drew Lock against a Cardinals defense that's been fifth-toughest on RB scoring by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.
That makes no Seahawks RB safe to insert into your Week 9 lineup.
Mike Washington, Las Vegas Raiders
Mike Washington took 80.6% of Raiders carries last week, way ahead of his previous high of 45.0% from Week 6.
But that fifth-largest carry share produced just 8.3 PPR points, good for RB27 on the week. It was the lowest PPR output for any RB with at least 25 rushes this season.
Washington’s 3.3 yards per carry against the Jets looked similar to Jeanty’s 3.1 season-long mark, which doesn’t seem likely to win him workhorse-level shares going forward.
His volume figures to take another hit if game script works against the Raiders the way it’s expected to this week. The 49ers come off their bye to arrive as 10-point favorites. They’ve also allowed the sixth-fewest rushing fantasy points to RBs this season and fifth-fewest yards per carry. Combine that with San Francisco allowing the most RB receptions, and this sure looks like a Jeanty-friendly game.
Even if you grabbed Washington off waivers this week, try not to use him.
Wide Receivers to Start
Find the favorable matchups for your WR spots.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
Ladd McConkey came out of the bye week as the Chargers’ target and scoring leader, producing a team-high 12.6 PPR points on 4 receptions for 86 yards.
McConkey did tally 54 yards of that on a tipped hail mary that he secured just a yard shy of the goal line to end the first half. But he led the team with a season-high 92.3% route share on his way to a 20.0% target share.
It’s the first time McConkey’s been healthy enough to surpass an 80% route share since Week 4.
He now gets a Texans defense that’s allowing the second-most points to WRs and fifth-most receiving yards per game.
McConkey’s a start in Week 9.
Keenan Allen, Indianapolis Colts
Keenan Allen has been the Colts WR target leader in all but one game since returning from his groin injury in Week 5. Over that time, his 22.7% target share ranks 23rd among WRs.
His 11.4 PPR points per game over the past four weeks ranks a mere 35th, but now the Colts get a WR-friendly Cowboys D. Dallas has boosted WR scoring at the league’s sixth-highest clip.
Allen has faced a defense boosting points to WRs at the 10th-highest rate or higher three times this season in the Texans, Titans, and Jaguars. He’s averaging 16.1 PPR points across those games, which would rank as the WR14 for the season.
The 14th-year WR belongs in your starting lineups this week.
WRs to Sit
Unproven track records prove too much this week.
Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders
Tre Tucker was held without a catch last week, while garnering just 1 target in a game in which QB Kirk Cousins threw for 247 yards and 3 TDs.
Tucker still leads Raiders WRs in target share but sits well behind TE Brock Bowers’ 27.6% mark and tied with RB Ashton Jeanty at 17.2%. His target share ranks just 49th among WRs.
This week presents a 49ers defense that’s …
- reducing points to WRs by 7.6%
- boosting RB points by 6.3%
- and reducing TE points by 4.9%.
That setup doesn’t point to Tucker winning on target share in Week 9.
The 49ers defense is also allowing the fewest plays of 20+ yards. Such plays have been the primary driver of Tucker’s scoring. His 13.4-yard average depth of target trails only rookie WR Malik Benson among Raiders, and Benson has drawn just nine targets to Tucker’s 48. That aDOT also ranks 25th among 92 WRs with at least 20 targets on the season.
The unfriendly conditions make Tucker a weak option for Week 9.
Since his Week 4 breakout, Johnston’s production and usage have plummeted. He failed to draw a target last week and has averaged just 3.3 looks per game over his last three outings.
With declining snaps and increased competition from Oronde Gadsden and Tre Harris, Johnston is a risky boom-or-bust option even in a favorable matchup with Tennessee.
Malik Washington, Miami Dolphins
Washington owns a 25.1% target share that ranks 17th among all WRs, but he’s producing as the WR40. Despite that team-leading target share, he trails rookie WR Caleb Douglas in PPR points per game.
Since Douglas returned from his ankle sprain, Washington’s team-high target volume has been slipping. Washington sits tied with Douglas and rookie WR Chris Bell in target share since Week 7.
QB Malik Willis hasn’t surpassed 220 passing yards in any game this season and is averaging 181.1 yards per game, 30th league-wide.
This week brings a favorable matchup against the Lions, but we’ve only seen Washington land higher than WR35 in PPR points twice this year. Overall, he ranks 40th in points per game. And a 10.4-yard aDOT that ranks seventh among Dolphins means Washington needs target volume more than Douglas (12.3) and Bell (13.6) to generate fantasy points.
Washington’s low-floor, low-ceiling option for Week 9.
Tight End to Start
Quietly, he’s the second-favorite target.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts had his top-12 streak snapped with a TE40 finish in Week 8, scoring just 2.6 PPR points. Blame that on a monsoon game that included Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. throwing 4 INTs and Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield attempting only three passes.
Pitts has commanded a 17.0% target share since Penix returned in Week 3, trailing only WR Drake London for the team lead. Pitts actually came away with a season-high 21.7% target share in Week 8 despite his tiny numbers.
Pitts had preceded that with top-12 finishes in three straight weeks. Hiis 17.1 PPR points per game over that span ranked fourth among TEs.
This week brings a Bengals defense that’s boosting TE scoring by 52.7%, the highest mark in the league. Pitts belongs in your Week 9 lineups.
TE to Sit
There hasn’t been an answer for the Vikings defense yet.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
The Bills came out of their bye week to face a Ravens defense boosting TE points by 5.1%. Dalton Kincaid took advantage with 18.6 PPR points, his second-highest mark of the season.
But Week 9 brings a Vikings defense that’s allowing the fewest points to TEs and reducing their scoring by a staggering 42.7%. This defense has already faced three TE1s in Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson, and Tucker Kraft, and has yet to allow a top-12 week this season.
Kincaid is producing as the TE8 on the year with 11.3 PPR points per game, turning a 12th-ranked 18.1% target share into the fifth-most receiving yards per game 57.3.
But that efficiency is unlikely to continue against a Vikings defense that’s allowed 60 receiving yards to a TE just once. That was Kraft (65 yards) in the season opener.
Leave Kincaid out of your lineups for Week 9.
