Week 17 Matchups That Matter: Get-Right Spot For Buccaneers

Welcome to Week 17’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 17 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 17!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Cardinals at Bengals (53.5)
2. Bears at 49ers (52.5)
3. Cowboys at Commanders (50.5)
4. Rams at Falcons (50.0)
5. Jaguars at Colts (48.5)

Lowest Game Totals

12. Texans at Chargers (40.5)
13. Saints at Titans (39.5)
t-14. Ravens at Packers (38.0)
t-14. Broncos at Chiefs (38.0)
16. Steelers at Browns (35.0)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Bengals (30.5)
2. Cowboys (29.75)
3. Rams (28.75)
t-4. Patriots (28.0)
t-4. 49ers (28.0)
6. Jaguars (27.0)

Fewest Projected Points

28. Panthers (18.25)
29. Ravens (17.75)
30. Browns (15.75)
31. Jets (14.5)
32. Chiefs (12.25)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Jaguars (64.2)
2. Cowboys (63.8)
3. Cardinals (63.6)
4. Broncos (63.4)
t-5. Rams (63.1)
t-5. Bears (63.1)
7. 49ers (63.0)

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Vikings (59.0)
29. Raiders (58.8)
30. Jets (58.2)
31. Dolphins (57.9)
32. Chiefs (57.5)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. We're now using pace from the last five weeks to get a fresher sample.

Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Cowboys at Commanders (26.4 seconds)
2. Patriots at Jets (26.5 seconds)
3. Broncos at Chiefs (26.7 seconds)
4. Rams at Falcons (27.4 seconds)
5. Saints at Titans (27.6 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

12. Bears at 49ers (29.1 seconds)
13. Steelers at Browns (29.2 seconds)
14. Buccaneers at Dolphins (29.4 seconds)
15. Giants at Raiders (29.5 seconds)
16. Texans at Chargers (29.9 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Steelers at Browns

There's a 60% chance of rain early in this game, with precipitation likely to taper off in the second half. The wind is the bigger concern: 15 mph sustained with gusts up around 25 mph. There wasn't likely to be much passing production here anyway, but the weather won't help.

Saints at Titans

Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts up over 30. That'll likely impact deep passes and kicks. We're not making any projections updates here, but you can use weather as a tiebreaker against QBs and pass catchers in this game.

Cardinals at Bengals

Sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts of 25-35. Not ideal, but we wouldn't pivot off any of the key passing-game pieces here.

Eagles and Bills

This one will be wet. There's a flood watch in Buffalo from 1 pm ET through Monday afternoon. The good news is that wind won't be a problem here. But we're still expecting a run-leaning attack from both offenses.

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Patriots at Jets (+77.7%)
2. 49ers vs. Bears (+54.3%)
3. Seahawks at Panthers (+52.8%)
4. Cowboys at Commanders (+52.2%)
5. Packers vs. Ravens (+51.2%)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

28. Titans vs. Saints (-9.5%)
29. Raiders vs. Giants (-11.0-%)
30. Panthers vs. Seahawks (-17.6%)
31. Vikings vs. Lions (-19.9%)
32. Browns vs. Steelers (-37.6%)

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Josh Johnson vs. Cowboys (+48.2%)
2. Shedeur Sanders vs. Steelers (+20.0%)
3. Quinn Ewers vs. Buccaneers (+19.7%)
4. Dak Prescott at Commanders (+19.5%)
5. Jacoby Brissett at Bengals (+18.8%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Cam Ward vs. Saints (-18.4%)
29. C.J. Stroud at Chargers (-23.7%)
30. Josh Allen vs. Eagles (-24.0%)
31. Jared Goff at Vikings (-27.2%)
32. Justin Herbert vs. Texans (32.0%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Rams at Falcons (+15.8%)
2. Bills vs. Eagles (+5.1%)
3. Bears at 49ers (+4.1%)
4. Eagles at Bills (+2.7%)
5. Cowboys at Commanders (-2.7%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

28. Buccaneers at Dolphins (-25.3%)
29. Saints at Titans (-25.9%)
30. Texans at Chargers (-26.6%)
31. Panthers vs. Seahawks (-33.6%)
32. Browns vs. Steelers (-34.7%)

5 Best RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Cardinals at Bengals (+33.6%)
2. Raiders vs. Giants (+28.0%)
3. Bengals vs. Cardinals (+20.5%)
4. Eagles at Bills (+19.7%)
5. Commanders vs. Cowboys (+18.4%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Panthers vs. Seahawks (-11.7%)
29. Broncos at Chiefs (-13.2%)
30. Jets vs. Patriots (-13.8%)
31. Ravens at Packers (-16.5%)
32. Falcons vs. Rams (-18.3%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Commanders vs. Cowboys (+34.8%)
2. 49ers vs. Bears (+20.2%)
3. Jaguars at Colts (+19.8%)
4. Vikings vs. Lions (+17.7%)
5. Browns vs. Steelers (+16.0%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Bengals vs. Cardinals (-13.6%)
29. Titans vs. Saints (-14.6%)
30. Chargers vs. Texans (-24.1%)
31. Bills vs. Eagles (-24.6%)
32. Lions at Vikings (-26.4%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. Commanders CBs Mike Sainristil, Antonio Hamilton, and Noah Igbinoghene

Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Titans CBs Marcus Harris, Darrell Baker, and Kaiir Elam

Buccaneers WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Jalen McMillan vs. Dolphins CBs Jack Jones, Rasul Douglas, and Ashtyn Davis

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Lions CBs D.J. Reed, Rock Ya-Sin, and Amik Robertson

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel vs. Cowboys CBs Trevon Diggs, Shavon Revel, and Reddy Steward

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Texans WRs Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins vs. Chargers CBs Donte Jackson, Cam Hart, and Tarheeb Still

Chargers WRs Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, and Tre Harris vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Eagles CB Cooper DeJean

Chiefs WRs Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Marquise Brown vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Cardinals at Bengals (+72.3%)
2. Browns vs. Steelers (+33.9%)
3. Buccaneers at Dolphins (+33.5%)
4. Cowboys at Commanders (+27.0%)
5. Bengals vs. Cardinals (+23.1%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Packers vs. Ravens (-19.1%)
29. Texans at Chargers (-19.4%)
30. Rams at Falcons (-24.7%)
31. Bills vs. Eagles (-38.8%)
32. Eagles at Bills (-40.3%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Steelers at Browns (+91.4%)
2. Lions at Vikings (+74.6%)
3. Giants at Raiders (+72.9%)
4. Patriots at Jets (+46.7%)
5. Titans vs. Saints (+46.3%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Commanders vs. Cowboys (-42.7%)
29. Ravens at Packers (-45.0%)
30. Jaguars at Colts (-56.4%)
31. Vikings vs. Lions (-60.1%)
32. Falcons vs. Rams (-61.5%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Andres Borregales at Jets (+48.4%)
2. Jake Moody vs. Cowboys (+25.4%)
3. Evan McPherson vs. Cardinals (+20.8%)
4. Harrison Mevis at Falcons (+19.1%)
5. Brandon McManus vs. Ravens (+18.9%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Zane Gonzalez vs. Rams (-15.5%)
29. Ryan Fitzgerald vs. Seahawks (-18.8%)
30. Cairo Santos at 49ers (-28.2%)
31. Blake Grupe vs. Jaguars (-29.9%)
32. Cameron Dicker vs. Texans (-46.5%)