Week 14 Matchups That Matter: RB Bonanza In Buffalo?

Welcome to Week 14’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 14 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for personalized advice.

Good luck in Week 14!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Cowboys at Lions (55.5)
2. Bengals at Bills (54.0)
3. Rams at Cardinals (47.5)
4. Colts at Jaguars (45.5)
5. Seahawks at Falcons (44.5)
6. Bears at Packers (44.0)

Lowest Game Totals

9. Saints at Buccaneers (42.0)
t-10. Texans at Chiefs (41.5)
t-10. Dolphins at Jets (41.5)
t-10. Eagles at Chargers (41.5)
13. Broncos at Raiders (40.5)
14. Titans at Browns (33.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Bills (29.75)
2. Lions (29.25)
3. Rams (28.5)
4. Cowboys (25.75)
5. Seahawks (25.5)
6. Packers (25.25)
7. Buccaneers (25.0)

Fewest Projected Points

t-23. Browns (18.75)
t-23. Bears (18.75)
25. Steelers (18.5)
26. Saints (17.0)
27. Raiders (16.25)
28. Titans (14.75)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Bills (64.0)
2. Chargers (63.5)
t-3. Cardinals (63.4)
t-3. Jaguars (63.4)
5. Cowboys (63.2)

Fewest Projected Plays

24. Dolphins (58.5)
25. Eagles (58.6)
26. Raiders (58.5)
27. Vikings (58.4)
28. Titans (58.3)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. We're now using pace from the last five weeks to get a fresher sample.

Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Cowboys at Lions (25.7 seconds)
2. Texans at Chiefs (26.3 seconds)
3. Commanders at Vikings (26.6 seconds)
4. Bears at Packers (26.6 seconds)
5. Bengals at Bills (27.4 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

10. Rams at Cardinals (28.5 seconds)
11. Dolphins at Jets (29.1 seconds)
12. Colts at Jaguars (29.2 seconds)
13. Eagles at Chargers (29.4 seconds)
14. Titans at Browns (29.6 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Colts at Jaguars

It's expected to rain throughout this game, with heavy rain at times. Winds are projected at just 5-10 mph. Rain doesn't have as big an impact on offensive production as wind, but this looks like it'll be a sloppy game. The over/under has dropped from 47.5 to 45.5. We're now projecting both teams to go a bit run-heavier and be less efficient when passing. See the updated rankings.

Bengals at Bills

Snow is expected during this game. Temperatures will be in the low 30s, with winds at just 5-10 mph. They're not ideal scoring conditions, but the over/under on this game has held steady at 54.0. We're not adjusting projections.

Titans at Browns

A similar forecast to Buffalo: Snow is likely, with temps in the low 30s. Wind is projected to be a bit heavier here at 10-15 mph. It's still not enough to make a big impact on the game -- although there was never likely to be much scoring in this one.

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

t-1. Bills vs. Bengals (+57.6%)
t-1. Lions vs. Cowboys (+57.6%)
3. Packers vs. Bears (+57.4%)
4. Seahawks at Falcons (+44.1%)
5. Rams at Cardinals (+41.1%)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

24. Falcons vs. Seahawks (-3.4%)
25. Saints at Buccaneers (-6.9%)
26. Browns vs. Titans (-16.8%)
27. Titans at Browns (-27.4%)
28. Raiders vs. Broncos (-30.9%)

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jared Goff vs. Cowboys (+47.2%)
2. Josh Allen vs. Bengals (+26.1%)
3. J.J. McCarthy vs. Commanders (+17.1%)
4. Jordan Love vs. Bears (+16.3%)
5. Lamar Jackson vs. Steelers (+16.1%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Caleb Williams at Packers (-17.3%)
25. Jalen Hurts at Chargers (-19.2%)
26. Joe Burrow at Bills (-20.4%)
27. Geno Smith vs. Broncos (-25.6%)
28. Patrick Mahomes vs. Texans (-30.8%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Bills vs. Bengals (+22.6%)
2. Bengals at Bills (+7.1%)
3. Rams at Cardinals (+6.6%)
4. Lions vs. Cowboys (+3.9%)
5. Colts at Jaguars (+1.5%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

24. Texans at Chiefs (-31.5%)
25. Cardinals vs. Rams (-33.5%)
26. Saints at Buccaneers (-39.6%)
27. Titans at Browns (-46.1%)
28. Raiders vs. Broncos (-50.7%)

5 Best RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Bills vs. Bengals (+43.5%)
2. Bengals at Bills (+16.1%)
3. Lions vs. Cowboys (+14.4%)
4. Broncos at Raiders (+13.8%)
5. Browns vs. Titans (+13.6%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Colts at Jaguars (-11.6%)
25. Titans at Browns (-15.7%)
26. Texans at Chiefs (-19.6%)
27. Cowboys at Lions (-22.4%)
28. Cardinals vs. Rams (-22.5%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Lions vs. Cowboys (+41.1%)
2. Cowboys at Lions (+20.2%)
3. Jaguars vs. Colts (+18.2%)
4. Packers vs. Bears (+17.6%)
5. Ravens vs. Steelers (+16.3%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Chargers vs. Eagles (-15.7%)
25. Eagles at Chargers (-18.0%)
26. Raiders vs. Broncos (-19.7%)
27. Commanders at Vikings (-20.9%)
28. Chiefs vs. Texans (-21.6%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Lions WRs Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa, and Tom Kennedy vs. Cowboys DaRon Bland, Trikweze Bridges, and Reddy Steward

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle vs. Jets CBs Brandon Stephens, Azareye'h Thomas, and Malachi Moore

Buccaneers WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Alontae Taylor

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Commanders CBs Mike Sainristil, Jonathan Jones, and Noah Igbinoghene

Packers WRs Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs vs. Bears CBs Nahshon Wright and Kyler Gordon

Colts WRs Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce vs. Jaguars CBs Greg Newsome and Montaric Brown

Broncos WRs Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant vs. Raiders CBs Kyu Kelly, Eric Stokes, and Jeremy Chinn

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Chiefs WRs Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre

Texans WRs Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Eagles CB Cooper DeJean

Bears WRs D.J. Moore and Luther Burden vs. Packers CBs Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine

Raiders WR Tre Tucker vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain and Riley Moss

Falcons WR Darnell Mooney vs. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen, Josh Jobe, and Devon Witherspoon

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Bills vs. Bengals (+88.3%)
2. Jets vs. Dolphins (+29.8%)
3. Ravens vs. Steelers (+27.3%)
4. Colts at Jaguars (+25.4%)
5. Jaguars vs. Colts (+19.4%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Chiefs vs. Texans (-22.6%)
25. Broncos at Raiders (-34.4%)
26. Seahawks at Falcons (-34.6%)
27. Chargers vs. Eagles (-34.6%)
28. Bengals at Bills (-52.0%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Titans at Browns (+96.7%)
2. Commanders at Vikings (+92.0%)
3. Broncos at Raiders (+63.7%)
4. Buccaneers vs. Saints (58.4%)
5. Rams at Cardinals (+49.2%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Bears at Packers (-48.5%)
25. Cardinals vs. Rams (-50.7%)
26. Lions vs. Cowboys (-51.4%)
27. Cowboys at Lions (-51.9%)
28. Jaguars vs. Colts (-64.9%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Riley Patterson at Jets (+39.3%)
2. Chris Boswell at Ravens (+26.6%)
3. Harrison Mevis at Cardinals (+24.0%)
4. Jake Moody at Vikings (+21.6%)
5. Jake Bates vs. Cowboys (+16.9%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Cam Little vs. Colts (-12.8%)
25. Chad Ryland vs. Rams (-14.0%)
26. Zane Gonzalez vs. Seahawks (-36.7%)
27. Blake Grupe at Jaguars (-38.7%)
28. Harrison Butker vs. Texans (-43.1%)