Week 10 Matchups That Matter: Will Jaxson Dart Keep Rolling?

Welcome to Week 10’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 10 Rankings and your Team Intel page for personalized advice.

Good luck in Week 10!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Bills at Dolphins (50.0)
2. Rams at 49ers (49.5)
t-3. Ravens at Vikings (49.0)
t-3. Lions at Commanders (49.0)
t-5. Falcons at Colts (48.5)
t-5. Patriots at Buccaneers (48.5)

Lowest Game Totals

11. Raiders at Broncos (42.5)
12. Saints at Panthers (38.5)
t-13. Jaguars at Texans (37.5)
t-13. Browns at Jets (37.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Bills (30.0)
2. Lions (28.5)
3. Rams (27.75)
4. Colts (27.5)
5. Ravens (26.5)
6. Seahawks (26.25)

Fewest Projected Points

t-23. Jaguars (19.25)
t-23. Cardinals (19.25)
25. Texans (18.25)
26. Jets (17.5)
27. Raiders (16.75)
28. Saints (16.5)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Chargers (64.0)
2. Broncos (63.8)
3. Bears (63.6)
4. 49ers (63.5)
5. Rams (63.1)

Fewest Projected Plays

24. Eagles (60.3)
25. Commanders (59.9)
26. Raiders (59.6)
27. Saints (59.5)
28. Dolphins (59.2)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. We're now using pace from the last five weeks to get a fresher sample.

Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Rams at 49ers (26.6 seconds)
2. Giants at Bears (27.2 seconds)
3. Raiders at Broncos (27.4 seconds)
4. Saints at Panthers (27.6 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

12. Lions at Commanders (29.6 seconds)
13. Bills at Dolphins (29.8 seconds)
14. Patriots at Buccaneers (30.8 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Saints at Panthers

Sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. That's a slight ding to the passing and kicking games, but hopefully you weren't relying too heavily on those units.

Giants at Bears

Sustained winds around 20 mph with gusts up near 30 mph. That's enough to potentially impact play calling and passing efficiency. We're docking both passing games and would stay away from the kickers in this game. The game's total has dropped from 47 to 45.5.

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Bills at Dolphins (+74.0%)
2. Rams at 49ers (+63.6%)
3. Seahawks vs. Cardinals (+60.1%)
4. Lions at Commanders (+49.2%)
5. Packers vs. Eagles (+44.9%)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

24. Dolphins vs. Bills (-3.5%)
25. Commanders vs. Lions (-4.0%)
26. Jets vs. Browns (-11.6%)
27. Jaguars at Texans (-14.2%)
28. Raiders at Broncos (-20.0%)

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Justin Herbert vs. Steelers (+32.0%)
2. Jaxson Dart at Bears (+29.6%)
3. Jared Goff at Commanders (+19.6%)
4. Davis Mills vs. Jaguars (+18.4%)
5. Baker Mayfield vs. Patriots (+18.0%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Tyler Shough at Panthers (-15.1%)
25. Brock Purdy vs. Rams (-16.9%)
26. Aaron Rodgers at Chargers (-24.0%)
27. Geno Smith at Broncos (-27.8%)
28. Trevor Lawrence at Texans (-30.1%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Bears vs. Giants (+18.3%)
2. Colts vs. Falcons (+12.2%)
3. Bills at Dolphins (+7.8%)
4. Steelers at Chargers (+2.2%)
5. Rams at 49ers (-0.8%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

24. Jets vs. Browns (-37.9%)
25. Buccaneers vs. Patriots (-39.6%)
26. Texans vs. Jaguars (-41.6%)
27. Cardinals at Seahawks (-45.0%)
28. Raiders at Broncos (-53.5%)

5 Best RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Bears vs. Giants (+42.1%)
2. Vikings vs. Ravens (+18.9%)
3. Broncos vs. Raiders (+13.1%)
4. Bills at Dolphins (+9.3%)
5. Giants at Bears (+9.0%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Buccaneers vs. Patriots (-16.3%)
25. Eagles at Packers (-21.9%)
26. Commanders vs. Lions (-24.8%)
27. Jets vs. Browns (-35.1%)
28. 49ers vs. Rams (-38.9%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Chargers vs. Steelers (+39.3%)
2. Giants at Bears (+16.8%)
3. Falcons at Colts (+16.2%)
4. Buccaneers vs. Patriots (+16.1%)
5. Lions at Commanders (+11.5%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Saints at Panthers (-16.6%)
25. Bills at Dolphins (-17.7%)
26. Steelers at Chargers (-19.9%)
27. Raiders at Broncos (-22.3%)
28. Jaguars at Texans (-26.4%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Lions WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams vs. Commanders CBs Jonathan Jones, Trey Amos, and Mike Sainristil

Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Jaguars CBs Greg Newsome and Montaric Brown

Ravens WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman vs. Vikings CBs Josh Metellus, Byron Murphy, and Isaiah Rodgers

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Steelers CB Brandin Echols

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward, Tyson Campbell, and Myles Harden

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Alontae Taylor

Commanders WRs Deebo Samuel, Jaylin Lane, and Chris Moore vs. Lions CBs Arthur Maulet, Terrion Arnold, and Amik Robertson

Bills WRs Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman vs. Dolphins CBs Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jack Jones, and Ethan Bonner

Giants WRs Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton vs. Bears CBs Tyrique Stevenson, Nahshon Wright, and Nick McCloud

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. Packers CBs Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine, and Javon Bullard

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle vs. Bills CBs Christian Benford, Tre White, and Maxwell Hairston

Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Seahawks CBs Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen

Raiders WR Tre Tucker vs. Broncos CBs Riley Moss, Kris Abrams-Draine, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Packers WR Matthew Golden vs. Eagles CB Cooper DeJean

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Texans vs. Jaguars (+50.0%)
2. Falcons at Colts (+45.9%)
3. Chargers vs. Steelers (+34.2%)
4. Bills at Dolphins (+24.0%)
5. Giants at Bears (+20.0%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Steelers at Chargers (-22.9%)
25. Broncos vs. Raiders (-23.9%)
26. Packers vs. Eagles (-40.9%)
27. Dolphins vs. Bills (-49.2%)
28. Colts vs. Falcons (-58.6%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Ravens at Vikings (+99.2%)
2. Jets vs. Browns (+90.0%)
3. Browns at Jets (+69.5%)
4. Saints at Panthers (+63.9%)
5. Broncos vs. Raiders (+52.3%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Packers vs. Eagles (-40.3%)
25. Eagles at Packers (-51.1%)
26. Commanders vs. Lions (-53.6%)
27. Dolphins vs. Bills (-54.4%)
28. Falcons at Colts (-71.9%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Brandon McManus vs. Eagles (+44.3%)
2. Andre Szmyt at Jets (+41.0%)
3. Cairo Santos vs. Giants (23.8%)
4. Matt Prater at Dolphins (+20.3%)
5. Will Reichard vs. Ravens (+19.2%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. John Parker Romo at Colts (-25.1%)
25. Matt Gay vs. Lions (-25.2%)
26. Chad Ryland at Seahawks (-30.3%)
27. Ka'imi Fairbairn vs. Jaguars (-34.6%)
28. Cam Little at Texns (-64.0%)