16-Team Draft Strategy: Your Blueprint for Every Draft Spot

Pick-by-Pick 16-Team Draft Strategy

A 16-team draft can feel daunting...

You need to know a deeper pool of players. And, as with any league size, you need to juggle several variables each time you’re on the clock:

• Scoring system
• Positional value
• Team needs
• ADP
• Upside
• Injury risk

…and more. It’s easy to be overwhelmed and make costly draft mistakes.

The solution: A pick-by-pick draft strategy guide to help you make optimal picks.

The 16-team draft strategy guide below will take you through top targets and secondary options for every round, no matter where you're picking.

We’re using our 3D Values and current ADP to pinpoint the top picks in each round.

Consider this your game plan heading into your draft.

Of course, no fantasy football draft matches ADP. You must adjust your 16-team draft strategy as you go to maximize value.

That’s where the customized, dynamic fantasy football cheat sheet in your Draft War Room comes into play. It instantly analyzes 17 value indicators each time you’re on the clock to help you make the best pick. 

Don't enter your next draft without it.

Note: This strategy guide assumes a 16-round draft and starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 DST. The Draft War Room will help you adjust your strategy if your league settings are different. We're also using a best-case scenario approach for all draft positions, so you may not find players available when you're on the clock in a particular round. If that happens, simply skip ahead to the next round for draftable options. And remember: ADPs will vary across different fantasy platforms.

16-Team Draft Strategy for Pick 1, 2, 3, or 4

Round 1

Top Target: Puka Nacua

Nacua leads the 16-team PPR board with a 3D Value of 100, edging Gibbs at 98.5.

You can comfortably take Gibbs, particularly if your league requires only two starting WRs. Still, Nacua’s elite target volume makes him the preferred pick in full PPR.

He’s commanded more than 26% of the Rams’ targets in all three NFL seasons, producing WR1, WR4, and WR6 finishes in PPR points per game.

Next Best: Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs is a strong selection anywhere near the top of the draft. 

He led all RBs in PPR scoring over the second half of last season, and David Montgomery’s departure could push even more work his way. 

Injuries have limited expected No. 2 RB Isiah Pacheco to 20 games and 3.8 yards per carry over the past two seasons.

Other Options

• Ja’Marr Chase
• Bijan Robinson

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Targets: Rashee Rice & Josh Jacobs*

This duo carries more uncertainty than most early-round combinations, but the ceiling remains enticing.

Rice was cleared to report for training camp after battling a knee injury and serving jail time over the summer. Kansas City’s quiet offseason at WR leaves him primed to resume a high-volume role after his 18.5 PPR points per game ranked fifth at the position in 2025.

Jacobs returned to practice ahead of the second preseason game after dealing with a groin injury. He figures to remain the clear lead back when healthy.

*August 30 Update: Jacobs was placed on the commissioner’s exempt list, meaning he's out indefinitely. Avoid him in fantasy drafts.

Next Best: Chris Olave & Breece Hall

Olave gets a boost after news of Jordyn Tyson's long-term hamstring injury. The veteran should push for a top-five target share with Tyson sidelined.

Hall’s three-year extension made him the NFL’s fourth-highest-paid RB by average annual value. 

He's expected to miss a couple of weeks with a groin injury, but the expectation is that he'll be ready for Week 1. When healthy, he should push for 15-18+ touches per game.

Other Options

• Josh Allen
• Javonte Williams
• Zay Flowers
• Malik Nabers
• DeVonta Smith
• Tee Higgins

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Targets: D’Andre Swift & Christian Watson

Swift fits best after a Nacua-Rice-Jacobs opening. If you started Gibbs-Jacobs, prioritize Watson, Hurts, or another WR instead.

Swift’s appeal is clear. He rode 16.2 opportunities per game to an RB15 finish last season. Chicago returns the same play-caller and backfield pairing with Kyle Monangai, giving Swift a strong chance to maintain that workload.

Watson posted career-best marks in targets per route run (0.23) and yards per route run (2.51) last year. With Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks gone and no major replacement added, Watson’s target outlook looks even stronger. 

He’s a priority WR in this range.

Next Best: Jalen Hurts & David Montgomery

Philadelphia’s offensive struggles didn’t stop Hurts from ranking QB7 in fantasy points per game last season. That marked his fourth straight top-seven finish, including three consecutive top-five campaigns before 2025. 

Losing A.J. Brown hurts, but Makai Lemon’s arrival and Hurts’ history of elite rushing production still give him a high-end QB1 ceiling. 

Hurts may be gone by this point, but he’s one of the few early-round QBs worth considering at cost.

Montgomery played the 1B role behind Jahmyr Gibbs in each of the past two seasons, but he’ll regain lead back status in Houston. Like Swift, he brings a healthy volume projection (16.7 opportunities) for a fantasy RB2.

We’ll see how much work Woody Marks takes, but for now, we expect him to see most of his action in change-of-pace and receiving-down situations. Montgomery, with 8+ rushing TDs in three straight seasons, should be the primary goal-line option.

Other Options

• Michael Pittman Jr.
• Sam LaPorta

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Targets: Jakobi Meyers & Kyler Murray

This looks like a fine range for the former Raider. From Week 11 on, he finished 24th in PPR points per game and 11th in expected points per game.

The Jags showed their commitment by signing him to a three-year extension in December.

Still without a QB? Check how many are gone in your league, and consider that Murray probably won’t make it back for your next pick.

Murray’s rushing ability gives him the upside to outperform his draft cost. Playing with a strong WR trio of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings only adds to Murray’s appeal.

Next Best: Jayden Reed & Blake Corum

Last year’s poor finish says more about Reed’s injuries than his ability. He has already shown he can lead Green Bay in receptions, and 131 vacated targets create a chance to regain that volume. 

Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft add competition, but Reed’s short-range role gives him a distinct way to earn catches. 

Corum has turned heads with his explosive ability in training camp. He carries a chance to continue eating into Kyren Williams' workload.

Other Options

• Kyle Monangai
• Josh Downs

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Targets: Dalton Kincaid & Romeo Doubs

If you still don't have a TE, this is a good time to address the position with Kincaid or the name below. If healthy, he has weekly TE1 upside after leading all 38 TEs with 40+ targets last year in both yards per route (2.79) and fantasy points per route (0.70). 

Doubs posted a career-high 1.73 yards per route run last season. He then joined the Pats on a four-year free-agent deal that calls for $39 million in guarantees.

Doubs will sit behind A.J. Brown, but he gets a QB upgrade in Drake Maye and joins a team that ranked fifth in pass rate over expected and sixth in red zone pass rate over expected last season.

Next Best: Mark Andrews & Rashid Shaheed  

Andrews’ recent TE1 production suffered as Likely carved out a meaningful role. That competition is gone, leaving Andrews with a more secure workload under new OC Declan Doyle. 

Jackson’s return to full health would give Andrews an additional boost.

Shaheed got a full offseason with Seattle after arriving in a midseason trade, and the target competition behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks thin. Cooper Kupp appears to be fading after averaging just 2.9 catches and 37.0 yards per game last year, while Tory Horton played only eight games as a rookie because of a shin injury.

Shaheed could settle into a near-every-down role and provide WR3/flex value.

Other Options

• Tyler Shough
• Woody Marks
• Tyjae Spears

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Targets: Dylan Sampson & Malik Willis 

Sampson showed his value in the passing game last year, topping Quinshon Judkins in yards per route (1.86 to 1.05) and Pro Football Focus receiving grade (80.6 to 64.2). 

Judkins is also coming off a dislocated ankle and fibula fracture, and any lingering limitation could open the door to a larger weekly role for Sampson.

QB depth disappears quickly in a 16-team format, so Willis makes sense as a second option unless you invested heavily in a weekly starter like Hurts.

The surrounding pass-catching talent lowers his passing ceiling, but Willis has already demonstrated difference-making rushing ability in a limited sample. Miami’s projected 4.5-win season should also force him into higher-volume game scripts with more opportunities to scramble.

Next Best: De'Zhaun Stribling & Cam Ward

Stribling continues to build momentum after a strong training camp and impressive preseason.

His size and athleticism give him intriguing upside, while his opportunity could eventually push him into the WR3/flex conversation. There's no real cause for concern over his recent shoulder injury.

Ward brings Year 2 breakout potential alongside new OC Brian Daboll and a WR corps that looks upgraded with the arrival of top pick Carnell Tate.

Other Options

• Keaton Mitchell
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Jonah Coleman
• Terrance Ferguson

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Targets: Ryan Flournoy & Tank Bigsby 

Flournoy topped 100 yards twice in 2025, including once with Lamb active. That production helped him claim the No. 3 WR role and build trust with both Dak Prescott and HC Brian Schottenheimer.

"He earned it the right way, he earned it through special teams. He earned it by doing the run blocking, doing the things in the run game -- the dirty work, if you will," Schottenheimer said in June. "Now he's one of those guys -- because he does everything right -- Dak [Prescott] doesn't hesitate when he looks at him. He just turns it loose. He gets to his spot."

If Lamb or George Pickens miss games, Flournoy would provide appeal as a WR3 with upside.

The 2025 sample was small, but Bigsby made his 63 carries count. 

Among 65 RBs with 50 or more attempts, he finished:

• first in yards after contact per attempt
• second in missed tackles forced per attempt
• third in yards per carry

That explosiveness makes him one of the more appealing contingency backs behind 29-year-old Saquon Barkley.

Next Best: Kaytron Allen & Jalen Nailor

Allen is a speculative stash, but there's a chance he earns a role as the season wears on. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has missed time recently with a groin injury. 

Nailor struggled to climb Minnesota’s depth chart behind superior talent, but his competition looks far less imposing in Las Vegas. A starting job is within reach, and the combination of Klint Kubiak and eventual starter Fernando Mendoza adds upside to the late-round profile.

Other Options

• Justice Hill
• Mike Gesicki

Rounds 14, 15, & 16

Late-round upside is hard to find in a 16-team league, but these players are worth considering beyond the names already covered:

• Seth McGowan
• Caleb Douglas
• Jack Bech
• Cyrus Allen

Stay flexible at DST and K, but don’t assume a typical 12-team streaming pool. Prioritize a defense with two or three playable early matchups, then reassess after the first few weeks.

DSTs

• Chargers (vs. ARI, vs. LV)
• Packers (at MIN, at NYJ, vs. ATL)
• Atlanta (at PIT, vs. CAR)

Ks

• Chase McLaughlin (at CIN, vs. CLE)
• Tyler Loop (at IND, vs. NO, at DAL)
• Harrison Mevis (vs. SF, vs. NYG)

16-Team Draft Strategy for Pick 5, 6, 7, or 8

Round 1

Top Target: Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey suited up for every game last season and paced all RBs in total fantasy scoring and points per game. That marked his third season with at least 16 appearances in the past four years.

Another healthy season would justify this price, but durability remains the primary risk. Drafters who remain wary of his injury history should consider the WRs below instead.

Next Best: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Our PPR WR rankings place Smith-Njigba atop Tier 2, slightly ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown.

OC Klint Kubiak’s departure raises a minor concern, but JSN’s elite target share makes it easier to overlook.

Other Options

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• CeeDee Lamb
• Justin Jefferson

Round 2

Top Target: Kenneth Walker 

Unless McCaffrey made it to you, you’re likely rostering one WR at this point. That makes RB a natural fit for a balanced roster build.

Walker tops the list after landing in Kansas City, where Emari Demercado and fifth-round rookie Emmett Johnson present limited competition. 

He offers three-down upside behind an O-line that finished 12th in adjusted line yards, while Patrick Mahomes’ ACL recovery could push Kansas City toward the run, at least early in the season.

Next Best: Chase Brown

The Bengals have given Brown little reason to worry about his workload entering a contract year. Samaje Perine profiles as a lightly used No. 2, leaving Brown positioned for another busy season. 

He finished RB8 in PPR points per game last year, even with Joe Burrow sidelined for nine games. Brown remains a strong candidate to land in that range again.

Other Options

• Jeremiyah Love
• A.J. Brown
• Rashee Rice

Round 3

Top Target: Tee Higgins

Burrow’s nine-game absence didn’t stop Higgins from posting a WR13 finish in PPR points per game. When the pair stayed healthy in 2024, Higgins ranked fifth among WRs.

At 27, Higgins is also squarely in his prime according to our historical aging curves for WRs.

Next Best: Travis Etienne

The Saints retained veteran Alvin Kamara, but Etienne projects as the clear lead back after signing a four-year deal with $28 million guaranteed. It also helps Etienne's case that Kamara will miss time with a knee injury.

On a rising offense, Etienne could settle in as one of the better fantasy RB2s.

Other Options

• D’Andre Swift
• Terry McLaurin
• Colston Loveland

Round 4

Top Target: D’Andre Swift

Swift is the preferred target for WR-heavy starts. If you already have two RBs, prioritize a top WR like Jameson Williams, Rome Odunze, or D.J. Moore.

Swift averaged 16.2 opportunities per game on his way to an RB15 finish in Chicago’s balanced, up-tempo offense. The Bears return the same backfield setup with Kyle Monangai, keeping Swift in line for similar volume.

Next Best: David Montgomery

Montgomery played the 1B role behind Jahmyr Gibbs in each of the past two seasons, but he’ll regain lead back status in Houston. Like Swift, he brings a healthy volume projection (16.7 opportunities) for a fantasy RB2.

Other Options

• Jameson Williams
• Rome Odunze
• D.J. Moore

Round 5

Top Target: Christian Watson

Watson posted career-best marks in targets per route run (0.23) and yards per route run (2.51) last year. With Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks gone and no major replacement added, Watson’s target outlook looks even stronger. 

The Packers also made a major commitment to the former Round 2 pick, signing him to a four-year extension in June.

Next Best: Jaylen Warren

Pittsburgh let Kenneth Gainwell and his 85 targets walk in free agency. A chunk of those should shift to Warren, who projects as the 1A runner ahead of new Steeler Rico Dowdle. 

After a 61-catch 2023, Warren recorded 38 and 40 catches over the past two seasons. Our projections have him rebounding to a 53-catch season alongside a conservative passer in Aaron Rodgers.

Warren’s passable as an RB2 but ideal as a third on builds with two WRs already rostered.

Other Options

• D.K. Metcalf
• Michael Pittman Jr.

Round 6

Top Target: Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence is worth considering in this range after the elite QBs are gone. He ranked first among all QBs in fantasy scoring following Jacksonville’s bye week (a 10-game sample). 

Now, he gets a full offseason with Jakobi Meyers. And there’s optimism that Brian Thomas Jr. can look more like the breakout player we saw in 2024.

Next Best: Jakobi Meyers

This is a solid range for Meyers, who ranked 24th in PPR points per game and 11th in expected points per game from Week 11 on.

The Jags showed their commitment by signing him to a three-year extension in December.

Other Options

• Justin Herbert
• Kyle Monangai
• Jonathon Brooks
• Blake Corum

Round 7

Top Target: Kyler Murray

If you didn’t land Lawrence or Herbert, Murray should be a top target here.

He averaged 35 rushing yards per game before last year’s foot injury, while Minnesota surrounds him with a strong WR corps of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings. Murray sits QB8 in our ceiling projections, three spots ahead of his baseline ranking.

Next Best: Josh Downs

We saw something closer to Downs’ ceiling in 2024 when he set career highs in catches (72), yards (803), and TDs (5) in 14 games. That type of production is well within reach, especially if Daniel Jones can continue making a smooth recovery from his Achilles tear.

Keenan Allen's arrival hurts the ceiling case, but Downs is still in contention to lead this unit in targets.

Other Options

• Bo Nix
• Jordan Mason
• Jordan Addison

Round 8

Top Target: Dalton Kincaid

This spot doesn’t look ripe for an early-round TE, but it’s a fine time to attack the position.

A healthy Kincaid could deliver a strong return on investment. Last year, his 2.79 yards per route and 0.70 fantasy points per route led all 38 TEs with 40+ targets.

Dawson Knox will remain involved, but there’s room for Kincaid to capture a larger role if he can stay healthy.

Next Best: Mark Andrews

Andrews’ recent TE1 production suffered as Likely carved out a meaningful role. That competition is gone, leaving Andrews with a more secure workload under new OC Declan Doyle. 

Jackson’s return to full health would give Andrews an additional boost.

Other Options

• Jordan Mason
• Woody Marks
• Romeo Doubs

Round 9

Top Target: Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed gets a full offseason after arriving in a midseason trade, and the target competition behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba is thin. Cooper Kupp looks like a fading role player after last year’s 2.9 catches and 37.0 yards per game, while Tory Horton is coming off an eight-game rookie season because of a shin injury. 

Shaheed could see something close to a full-time role and contribute to fantasy lineups as a WR3/flex.

Next Best: De'Zhaun Stribling

Stribling continues to build momentum after a strong training camp and impressive preseason play.

His size and athleticism give him intriguing upside, while his opportunity could eventually push him into the WR3/flex conversation. His recent shoulder injury appears minor.

Other Options

• Jordan Love
• Chris Rodriguez
• Jalen Coker

Round 10

Top Target: Jalen McMillan

A neck injury limited McMillan to four games last year, but he flashed when healthy, most notably with a 7-114 line vs. Miami. Now he gets a shot at a larger role with Mike Evans in San Francisco. 

The former third-round pick could finish third on the team in targets under new OC Zac Robinson.

Next Best: Dylan Sampson

Sampson proved useful in the passing game last season, beating Quinshon Judkins in both yards per route (1.86 to 1.05) and PFF receiving grade (80.6 to 64.2).

Judkins’ recovery from a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula adds another avenue for Sampson to earn more work.

Other Options

• Malik Willis
• Cam Ward
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Keaton Mitchell
• Jonah Coleman

Round 11

Top Target: Terrance Ferguson

If you're looking for an upside TE2, consider a mini-breakout candidate in Ferguson.

The second-year TE flashed last year with 21.0 yards per catch. He managed just a 60% catchable target rate from Matthew Stafford, but if their connection improves, Ferguson can become a useful TE streamer.

Next Best: Keaton Mitchell

Mitchell is currently dealing with a minor injury, but it doesn't take away from his intrigue in a Mike McDaniel offense. Mitchell is worth stashing to see how his role plays out.

Other Options

• Malik Willis
• Cam Ward
• Tank Bigsby
• Adonai Mitchell

Round 12

Top Target: Ryan Flournoy

Flournoy topped 100 yards twice in 2025, including once with Lamb active. That production helped him claim the No. 3 WR role and build trust with both Dak Prescott and HC Brian Schottenheimer.

"He earned it the right way, he earned it through special teams. He earned it by doing the run blocking, doing the things in the run game -- the dirty work, if you will," Schottenheimer said in June. "Now he's one of those guys -- because he does everything right -- Dak [Prescott] doesn't hesitate when he looks at him. He just turns it loose. He gets to his spot."

Next Best: Tank Bigsby

The 2025 sample was small, but Bigsby made his 63 carries count.

Among 65 RBs with 50 or more attempts, he finished:

• first in yards after contact per attempt
• second in missed tackles forced per attempt
• third in yards per carry

That explosiveness makes him one of the more appealing contingency backs behind 29-year-old Saquon Barkley.

Other Options

• Geno Smith
• Justice Hill
• AJ Barner

Round 13

Top Target: Jalen Nailor

Nailor struggled to climb Minnesota’s depth chart behind superior talent, but his competition looks far less imposing in Las Vegas. 

A starting job is within reach, and the combination of Klint Kubiak and eventual starter Fernando Mendoza adds upside to his late-round profile.

Next Best: Malik Washington

Miami's thin WR corps opens up an opportunity for Washington to lead the group in catches. He's the most established pass catcher of the bunch, and his Week 1 preseason usage suggests he'll rarely leave the field.

Other Options

• Justice Hill
• Mike Washington Jr.
• Isaac TeSlaa

Rounds 14, 15, & 16

Late-round upside is hard to find in a 16-team league, but these players are worth considering beyond the names already covered:

• Seth McGowan
• Caleb Douglas
• Jack Bech
• Cyrus Allen

Stay flexible at DST and K, but don’t assume a typical 12-team streaming pool. Prioritize a defense with two or three playable early matchups, then reassess after the first few weeks.

DSTs

• Chargers (vs. ARI, vs. LV)
• Packers (at MIN, at NYJ, vs. ATL)
• Atlanta (at PIT, vs. CAR)

Ks

• Chase McLaughlin (at CIN, vs. CLE)
• Tyler Loop (at IND, vs. NO, at DAL)
• Harrison Mevis (vs. SF, vs. NYG)

16-Team Draft Strategy for Pick 9, 10, 11, or 12

Round 1

Top Target: CeeDee Lamb

Lamb dealt with a Week 3 high-ankle sprain and posted a career-low 4% TD rate last season. Still, he finished WR10 in PPR points per game (WR7 in expected fantasy output).

A healthy Lamb brings the potential to regain top-five status in Dallas’ pass-leaning offense.

Next Best: James Cook

Buffalo returns its entire backfield plus four of five starters from an offensive line that ranked second in adjusted line yards.

The promotion of Joe Brady from OC to HC adds continuity, keeping Cook in the offense that produced consecutive top-eight PPR finishes.

Other Options

• Justin Jefferson

Round 2

Top Target: Kenneth Walker

Walker brings workhorse upside behind a line that ranked 12th in adjusted line yards last season. 

Kansas City also looks likely to lean on the run with Patrick Mahomes coming off an ACL tear and the pass-catching nucleus of Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy still presenting plenty of uncertainty. 

Next Best: Chase Brown

The Bengals have given Brown little reason to worry about his workload entering a contract year. Samaje Perine profiles as a lightly used No. 2, leaving Brown positioned for another busy season. 

He finished RB8 in PPR points per game last year, even with Joe Burrow sidelined for nine games. Brown remains a strong candidate to land in that range again.

Other Options

• Jeremiyah Love
• Rashee Rice
• A.J. Brown
• Nico Collins

Round 3

Top Target: Zay Flowers

If you open RB-RB with Cook followed by Walker or Brown, this is a good spot to grab a WR1 candidate in Flowers, who should remain the focal point of the offense under new OC Declan Doyle.

Next Best: Tee Higgins

Burrow’s nine-game absence didn’t stop Higgins from posting a WR13 finish in PPR points per game. When the pair stayed healthy in 2024, Higgins ranked fifth among WRs.

At 27, Higgins is also squarely in his prime according to our historical aging curves for WRs.

Other Options

• David Montgomery
• Jaylen Waddle
• Colston Loveland

Round 4

Top Target: Luther Burden

Burden showed growth as a rookie, finishing WR10 in PPR points per game over his final five outings. 

Now, his role should expand with D.J. Moore in Buffalo and positive buzz coming from both HC Ben Johnson and GM Ryan Poles. His momentum slowed due to a recent groin injury, but he's still expected to be ready for Week 1.

Next Best: Joe Burrow

We saw the ceiling on Burrow in 2024, when he finished QB2 in fantasy points per game. His history of missed time is notable, but few offenses generate as much passing volume as Cincinnati.

Burrow’s 35.1 attempts in his healthy games last year trailed only Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott. That pass-heavy approach should continue with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Other Options

• Jameson Williams 
• Rome Odunze
• D.J. Moore

Round 5

Top Target: Jaylen Warren

Pittsburgh let Kenneth Gainwell and his 85 targets walk in free agency. A chunk of those should shift to Warren, who projects as the 1A runner ahead of new Steeler Rico Dowdle. 

After a 61-catch 2023, Warren recorded 38 and 40 catches over the past two seasons. Our projections have him rebounding to a 53-catch season alongside a conservative passer in Aaron Rodgers.

Next Best: Tucker Kraft

Kraft opened training camp on the PUP list, but he was quickly activated and has continued to trend toward playing in Week 1. Limited playing time early on is likely, although he'll ramp up if he progresses as expected.

Although he played just two games with a healthy Watson last season, he still finished an impressive fourth among TEs at 14.7 PPR points per game. Romeo Doubs’ offseason departure (and the removal of his 85 targets) strengthens Kraft’s case for mid-tier TE1 production.

Other Options

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• D.K. Metcalf
• Michael Pittman Jr. 
• Parker Washington

Round 6

Top Target: Parker Washington 

OC Grant Udinski expects Washington’s late-season hot stretch from 2025 to carry over to the fall. He enters a contract year after finishing WR16 from Week 8 on.

Travis Hunter’s expected focus on defense only helps Washington’s path to snaps and targets.

Next Best: J.K. Dobbins

A season-ending foot injury interrupted another efficient year from Dobbins, who finished fourth among 51 qualifying RBs in rush yards over expected per attempt. Denver rewarded him with a two-year contract carrying $8 million guaranteed. RJ Harvey and Jonah Coleman may obstruct the ceiling, but Dobbins should remain the lead option in an offense strengthened by Bo Nix’s development and Jaylen Waddle’s arrival.

Other Options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Justin Herbert
• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Rico Dowdle
• Jakobi Meyers

Round 7

Top Target: Kyler Murray

If you passed on Burrow, Lawrence, and Herbert, Murray becomes the top target here, thanks to his rushing ability and his new landing spot.

Murray averaged 35 rushing yards per game before last year’s foot injury, while Minnesota surrounds him with a strong WR corps of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings. We fully expect him to secure the QB1 job over J.J. McCarthy.

Next Best: Jayden Reed

Reed is set for a target boost after the Packers moved on from Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. Their loss removes 131 targets from Green Bay's 2025 offense.

Health will be the key factor for Reed after he missed 10 games last season. The good news? He's enjoyed a healthy training camp following a contract extension in April.

Other Options

• Kyle Monangai
• Blake Corum
• Jonathon Brooks
• Jordan Addison
• Josh Downs

Round 8

Top Target: Dalton Kincaid

If you still don't have a TE, this is a good time to address the position with Kincaid or the name below.

A healthy Kincaid could deliver a strong return on investment. Last year, his 2.79 yards per route and 0.70 fantasy points per route led all 38 TEs with 40+ targets.

Dawson Knox will remain involved, but there’s room for Kincaid to capture a larger role if he can stay healthy.

Next Best: Mark Andrews

Andrews’ recent TE1 production suffered as Likely carved out a meaningful role. That competition is gone, leaving Andrews with a more secure workload under new OC Declan Doyle. 

Jackson’s return to full health would give Andrews an additional boost.

Other Options

• Jordan Mason
• Quentin Johnston
• KC Concepcion
• Romeo Doubs
• Woody Marks

Round 9

Top Target: Woody Marks

The Texans added an early-down workhorse in David Montgomery, but that won’t render Marks useless.

RB coach Danny Barrett said Marks is playing faster in Year 2 and will hold a passing-down role. Marks also spoke about the work OC Nick Caley is giving him in the passing game.

“Nick Caley is doing a great job right now,” he said. “Got me doing all types of routes, learning the route tree. Just get outside and just using me as he can so I can be productive.”

Recall that Marks entered the NFL with 261 catches across five college seasons. He could develop into a flex option even with a healthy Montgomery.

Next Best: Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed gets a full offseason after arriving in a midseason trade, and the target competition behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba is thin. Cooper Kupp looks like a fading role player after last year’s 2.9 catches and 37.0 yards per game, while Tory Horton is coming off an eight-game rookie season because of a shin injury. 

Shaheed could see something close to a full-time role and contribute to fantasy lineups as a WR3/flex.

Other Options

• Jordan Love
• Tyler Shough
• Baker Mayfield
• Jalen McMillan

Round 10

Top Target: De'Zhaun Stribling

Stribling continues to build momentum after a strong training camp and impressive preseason.

His size and athleticism give him intriguing upside, while his opportunity could eventually push him into the WR3/flex conversation. We'll monitor his shoulder injury, but for now, it appears minor.

Next Best: Dylan Sampson

Sampson proved useful in the passing game last season, beating Quinshon Judkins in both yards per route (1.86 to 1.05) and PFF receiving grade (80.6 to 64.2).

Judkins’ recovery from a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula adds another avenue for Sampson to earn more work.

Other Options

• Malik Willis
• Cam Ward
• Keaton Mitchell
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Jalen Coker
• Adonai Mitchell

Round 11

Top Target: Adonai Mitchell

Mitchell is a bet on talent, and it sounds like that bet has shown up at Jets training camp.

Here's his WR coach, Shawn Jefferson (per ESPN).

"If he continues on this trajectory right here, he will be a really good Robin for our Batman [Garrett Wilson]. Big time."

Improved QB play from Geno Smith would only help Mitchell post some useful fantasy lines.

Next Best: Terrance Ferguson

If you're looking for an upside TE2, consider a mini-breakout candidate in Ferguson.The second-year TE flashed last year with 21.0 yards per catch.

He managed just a 60% catchable target rate from Matthew Stafford, but if their connection improves, Ferguson can become a useful TE streamer.

Other Options

• Malik Willis
• Cam Ward
• Keaton Mitchell
• Jonah Coleman
• Chig Okonkwo

Round 12

Top Target: Ryan Flournoy 

Flournoy topped 100 yards twice in 2025, including once with Lamb active. That production helped him claim the No. 3 WR role and build trust with both Dak Prescott and HC Brian Schottenheimer.

"He earned it the right way, he earned it through special teams. He earned it by doing the run blocking, doing the things in the run game -- the dirty work, if you will," Schottenheimer said in June. "Now he's one of those guys -- because he does everything right -- Dak [Prescott] doesn't hesitate when he looks at him. He just turns it loose. He gets to his spot."

Next Best: Tank Bigsby

The 2025 sample was small, but Bigsby made his 63 carries count. 

Among 65 RBs with 50 or more attempts, he finished:

• first in yards after contact per attempt
• second in missed tackles forced per attempt
• third in yards per carry

That explosiveness makes him one of the more appealing contingency backs behind 29-year-old Saquon Barkley.

Other Options

• Geno Smith
• Kaytron Allen

Round 13

Top Target: Jalen Nailor

Nailor struggled to climb Minnesota’s depth chart behind superior talent, but his competition looks far less imposing in Las Vegas. A starting job is within reach, and the combination of Klint Kubiak and eventual starter Fernando Mendoza adds upside to the late-round profile.

Next Best: Malik Washington

Miami's thin WR corps opens up an opportunity for Washington to lead the group in catches. He's the most established pass catcher of the bunch, and his Week 1 preseason usage suggests he'll rarely leave the field.

Other Options

• Justice Hill
• Mike Washington Jr.
• Isaac TeSlaa

Rounds 14, 15, & 16

Late-round upside is hard to find in a 16-team league, but these players are worth considering beyond the names already covered:

• Seth McGowan
• Caleb Douglas
• Jack Bech
• Cyrus Allen

Stay flexible at DST and K, but don’t assume a typical 12-team streaming pool. Prioritize a defense with two or three playable early matchups, then reassess after the first few weeks.

DSTs

• Chargers (vs. ARI, vs. LV)
• Packers (at MIN, at NYJ, vs. ATL)
• Atlanta (at PIT, vs. CAR)

Ks

• Chase McLaughlin (at CIN, vs. CLE)
• Tyler Loop (at IND, vs. NO, at DAL)
• Harrison Mevis (vs. SF, vs. NYG)

16-Team Draft Strategy for Pick 13, 14, 15, or 16

Rounds 1 & 2

Top Targets: James Cook & Drake London 

Buffalo returns its entire backfield plus four of five starters from an offensive line that ranked second in adjusted line yards.

The promotion of Joe Brady from OC to HC adds continuity, keeping Cook in the offense that produced consecutive top-eight PPR finishes.

Next Best: Saquon Barkley & A.J. Brown

The Eagles will transition to more of an under-center, wide-zone blocking offense. We like the approach for Barkley, and the team has the O-line talent to pull it off.

Look for the veteran's efficiency to rebound in 2026.

Brown's enjoyed a healthy offseason, and word out of New England suggests he's taken well to OC Josh McDaniels' offense. A top-10 season is within reach alongside Drake Maye.

Other Options

• Chase Brown
• Kenneth Walker
• Omarion Hampton

Rounds 3 & 4

Top Targets: Tee Higgins & D’Andre Swift

Joe Burrow’s nine-game absence didn’t stop Higgins from posting a WR13 finish in PPR points per game. When the pair stayed healthy in 2024, Higgins ranked fifth among WRs.

At 27, Higgins is also squarely in his prime according to our historical aging curves for WRs.

Swift averaged 16.2 opportunities per game on his way to an RB15 finish in Chicago’s balanced, up-tempo offense. The Bears return the same backfield setup with Kyle Monangai, keeping Swift in line for similar volume.

Next Best: Terry McLaurin & David Montgomery

A quad injury and missed time from Jayden Daniels ruined McLaurin's 2025, but he’s a strong rebound candidate now that both are healthy and he still owns a clear No. 1 WR role. He should also benefit from new OC David Blough, who’s expected to move him around the formation much more than Kliff Kingsbury did and create more favorable matchups.

Montgomery played the 1B role behind Jahmyr Gibbs in each of the past two seasons, but he’ll regain lead back status in Houston. Like Swift, he brings a healthy volume projection (16.7 opportunities) for a fantasy RB2.

Other Options

• Jaylen Waddle
• Luther Burden
• Ladd McConkey

Rounds 5 & 6

Top Targets: Jaylen Warren & Parker Washington

Pittsburgh let Kenneth Gainwell and his 85 targets walk in free agency. A chunk of those should shift to Warren, who projects as the 1A runner ahead of new Steeler Rico Dowdle. 

After a 61-catch 2023, Warren recorded 38 and 40 catches over the past two seasons. Our projections have him rebounding to a 53-catch season alongside a conservative passer in Aaron Rodgers.

OC Grant Udinski expects Washington’s late-season hot stretch from 2025 to carry over. He enters a contract year after finishing WR16 from Week 8 on.

Travis Hunter’s expected focus on defense only helps Washington’s path to snaps and targets.

Next Best: Tucker Kraft & Jakobi Meyers

Kraft opened training camp on the PUP list, but he was quickly activated and has continued to trend toward playing in Week 1. Limited playing time early on is likely, although he'll ramp up if he progresses as expected.

This looks like a fine range for the former Raider. From Week 11 on, he finished 24th in PPR points per game and 11th in expected points per game.

The Jags showed their commitment by signing him to a three-year extension in December. He looks set to play close to a full-time role alongside Parker Washington.

Other Options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Justin Herbert
• Rico Dowdle
• J.K. Dobbins
• Michael Pittman Jr.

Rounds 7 & 8

Top Targets: Kyler Murray & Jayden Reed

Murray is one of our favorite mid-round QB picks thanks to his rushing ability and his new landing spot with HC Kevin O’Connell. 

Murray averaged 35 rushing yards per game before last year’s foot injury, while Minnesota surrounds him with a strong WR corps of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings. We fully expect him to secure the QB1 job over J.J. McCarthy.

Last year’s poor finish says more about Reed’s injuries than his ability. He has already shown he can lead Green Bay in receptions, and 131 vacated targets create a chance to regain that volume. Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft add competition, but Reed’s short-range role gives him a distinct way to earn catches. 

Next Best: Josh Downs & Dalton Kincaid

We saw something closer to Downs’ ceiling in 2024 when he set career highs in catches (72), yards (803), and TDs (5) in 14 games. That type of production is well within reach, especially if Daniel Jones can continue making a smooth recovery from his Achilles tear.

Keenan Allen's arrival hurts the ceiling case, but Downs is still in contention to lead this unit in targets.

A healthy Kincaid could deliver a strong return on investment. Last year, his 2.79 yards per route and 0.70 fantasy points per route led all 38 TEs with 40+ targets.

Dawson Knox will remain involved, but there’s room for Kincaid to capture a larger role if he can stay healthy.

Other Options

• Jordan Mason
• Xavier Worthy
• Romeo Doubs
• KC Concepcion
• Mark Andrews

Rounds 9 & 10

Top Targets: Rashid Shaheed & Tyjae Spears

Shaheed gets the benefit of a full offseason after coming over in a midseason trade. His target competition is light behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, with Cooper Kupp barely hanging on as a role player after last year’s 2.9 catches and 37.0 yards per game. Meanwhile, second-year WR Tory Horton is coming off an eight-game rookie season due to a shin injury. 

Shaheed could see something close to a full-time role and contribute to fantasy lineups as a WR3/flex.

The Titans used a mid-round pick on Penn State RB Nick Singleton, but HC Robert Saleh called Spears and Tony Pollard the team’s “bell cows” over the summer. 

Spears’ exact role under new OC Brian Daboll is still coming into focus, but he at least projects as the top receiving back after hitting 45 catches in two of the past three seasons.

Next Best: De'Zhaun Stribling & Tyler Shough

Stribling continues to build momentum after a strong training camp and impressive preseason.

His size and athleticism give him intriguing upside, while his opportunity could eventually push him into the WR3/flex conversation. His shoulder injury looks like a non-issue at this stage.

Shough looks like a fine target if you missed out on Murray, Lawrence, or Herbert. Despite little behind Chris Olave, Shough finished QB12 in fantasy points per game.

The Saints then bolstered the RB room with Travis Etienne. WR Jordyn Tyson is expected to miss regular-season games with a hamstring injury, but if he comes back healthy, he brings the potential to upgrade the No. 2 spot. Plus, the O-line received an upgrade with former Bills G David Edwards. 

Other Options

• Jordan Love
• Jalen McMillan

Rounds 11 & 12

Top Targets: Malik Willis & Chig Okonkwo

QB depth disappears quickly in a 16-team format, so Willis makes sense as a second option unless you invested heavily in an elite starter.

The surrounding pass-catching talent lowers his passing ceiling, but Willis has already demonstrated difference-making rushing ability in a limited sample. Miami’s projected 4.5-win season should also force him into higher-volume game scripts with more opportunities to scramble.

Okonkwo enters his first season in Washington with a chance to finish second on the team in targets behind Terry McLaurin. A healthy Jayden Daniels would also be a major QB upgrade over what he had in Tennessee.

Next Best: Tank Bigsby & Ryan Flournoy

The 2025 sample was small, but Bigsby made his 63 carries count. 

Among 65 RBs with 50 or more attempts, he finished:

• first in yards after contact per attempt
• second in missed tackles forced per attempt
• third in yards per carry

That explosiveness makes him one of the more appealing contingency backs behind 29-year-old Saquon Barkley.

Flournoy is locked in as Dallas' No. 3, and he showed his upside last year with a pair of 100-yard games. The ascending talent would bring WR3/flex appeal in any game that CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens miss.

Other Options

• Cam Ward
• Keaton Mitchell
• Jonah Coleman
• Mike Washington Jr.
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Terrance Ferguson

Rounds 13 & 14

Top Targets: Jalen Nailor & Malik Washington

Nailor struggled to climb Minnesota’s depth chart behind superior talent, but his competition looks far less imposing in Las Vegas. A starting job is within reach, and the combination of Klint Kubiak and eventual starter Fernando Mendoza adds upside to the late-round profile.

Miami's thin WR corps opens up an opportunity for Washington to lead the group in catches. He's the most established pass catcher of the bunch, and his Week 1 preseason usage suggests he'll rarely leave the field.

Next Best: Jack Bech & Justice Hill

Bech’s quiet rookie year is understandable when you consider the Raiders’ 2025 turmoil. OC Chip Kelly was fired in-season, while Vegas QBs combined for only 167.7 yards per game.

There’s more promise this year, with Super Bowl-winning play-caller Klint Kubiak in and the potential for top pick Fernando Mendoza to take over early in the season. 

The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec expects Hill to remain the No. 2 RB behind Derrick Henry. Baltimore spent a Round 5 pick on Adam Randall, but he spent only two college seasons at RB. If Henry shows signs of decline (or misses games), Hill would likely profile as a valuable RB2. 

Other Options

• Seth McGowan
• Caleb Douglas
• Cyrus Allen

Rounds 15 & 16

Stay flexible at DST and K, but don’t assume a typical 12-team streaming pool. Prioritize a defense with two or three playable early matchups, then reassess after the first few weeks.

DSTs

• Chargers (vs. ARI, vs. LV)
• Packers (at MIN, at NYJ, vs. ATL)
• Atlanta (at PIT, vs. CAR)

Ks

• Chase McLaughlin (at CIN, vs. CLE)
• Tyler Loop (at IND, vs. NO, at DAL)
• Harrison Mevis (vs. SF, vs. NYG)

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