Bijan Robinson Fantasy Overview

2025 Role & Results

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Robinson finished second among RBs in PPR points per game last year; third in half-PPR and non-PPR points per game.

He carried 287 times for 1,478 yards and 7 TDs and added another 820 yards and four scores on 79 catches. Robinson ranked fourth among RBs in rushing yards, second in receiving yards, and 13th in total TDs.

He scored as a top-12 PPR RB in 12 of 17 outings, including nine top-5 weeks. That tied Christian McCaffrey for most top-5 weeks at the position.

Usage & Role

Robinson was a workhorse for Atlanta last year. He ranked third among RBs in both snaps (821) and snap rate (78.3%).

The touches followed:

• fifth among RBs in carries
• ninth in carry share (60.2%)
• second in targets
• third in target share (18.0%)

Robinson’s usage lagged a bit near the goal line. He tied for just 23rd in carries inside the 10-yard line (17) and tied for 22nd in carries inside the 5 (10), losing work there to Tyler Allgeier.

But Robinson still finished second among RBs in expected PPR points per game; third in expected non-PPR points per game.

Efficiency & Regression

Robinson was one of the league’s best rushers by almost any metric last year. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• fourth in yards per carry
• seventh in rush yards over expected per attempt
• second in yards after contact per attempt
• first in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 12th in Pro Football Focus rush grade

Robinson was just as dominant as a pass catcher. Among 40 RBs with 30+ targets, he finished:

• first in yards per route
• fifth in PFF receiving grade

Offensive Context

The 2025 Falcons finished 14th in total yards but just 24th in points.

It was a run-leaning offense, ranking 21st in pass rate, 16th in neutral pass rate, and 26th in pass rate over expected.

Robinson ran behind a mediocre offensive line that finished ninth in PFF run-blocking grades but 30th in ESPN run-block win rate and 23rd in adjusted line yards.

Historical Production & Trends

Robinson’s fantasy production has climbed across each of his first three NFL seasons:

• 2023: 14.5 PPR points per game (RB17)
• 2024: 20.0 PPR PPG (RB3)
• 2025: 22.0 PPR PPG (RB2)

Robinson ranks third among RBs in PPR points per game over the last three seasons.

He also set new career highs in yards, yards after contact, and missed tackles forced per attempt last year.

Still just 24, Robinson sits smack dab in the middle of his prime.

Injury History & Durability

Robinson has not missed a game through three NFL seasons. In fact, the only significant injury on his resume is a dislocated elbow his sophomore year at Texas (2021).

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Projected Role & Competition

The Falcons swapped out Allgeier for Brian Robinson Jr. this offseason. Robinson got just $2.5 million on a one-year deal and looks like a downgrade. He trails Allgeier in:

• Career yards after contact per attempt (2.92 vs. 3.27)
• Career missed tackles forced per attempt (0.18 vs. 0.23)

Robinson offers a little more than Allgeier in the passing game, but he’s not a real threat to Bijan in that department. Brian has 73 catches through four NFL seasons, with nearly half of those coming in 2023.

In short, Bijan should be a workhorse for the Falcons again this season.

Supporting Cast

The Falcons will likely have a new QB under center, at least to open the season. Michael Penix Jr. is working back from his third torn ACL and isn’t expected back on the field until August. Kirk Cousins was released in March.

That leaves Tua Tagovailoa as the likely Week 1 starter. Tua had a couple of strong seasons in 2022 and 2023 but has disappointed the past two years.

On the plus side for Robinson, Tagovailoa sports a career 7.8-yard average target depth that’s sunk to 6.1 and 7.2 the last two seasons. He played a big part in De’Von Achane averaging 5.2 targets per game over those last two years and could be good news for Robinson’s target volume.

The Falcons return four of five starters from last year’s offensive line. Jawaan Taylor will take over for Elijah Wilkinson at RT after arriving in free agency. Taylor has started for the past seven seasons (four with Jacksonville, three with Kansas City) and should be a tangible upgrade.

This should again be a serviceable run-blocking offensive line in 2026.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Atlanta canned HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, and the rest of the staff this offseason. HC Kevin Stefanski takes over, with Tommy Rees as his OC.

Stefanski spent the last six seasons as Browns HC, compiling a 45-56 record. His first four offenses ranked between 14th and 18th in yards before QB play sank the operation the last two years.

Cleveland generally leaned run under Stefanski. Here’s where the team ranked in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected over the last six seasons:

Rees notably spent the past two years with Stefanski in Cleveland, including as OC last year. Rees took over play-calling from Stefanski in Week 10 last season and is expected to call plays this year.

Based on the history of this coaching staff and the Falcons’ personnel, expect this to be a run-leaning offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Robinson should continue to dominate touches in Atlanta’s backfield. And there’s a chance the team gets better play-calling and QB play this season.

Robinson clearly has the upside to lead all RBs in fantasy points.

Risk Factors

QB play is the biggest concern for Robinson. If Tagovailoa doesn’t bounce back and Penix doesn’t take a step forward in year three, this could be a bottom-10 offense.

That could make Robinson more “solid RB1” than “fantasy league-winner.”