Beware of the Injury Risk on These 13 Players
Know the Risk That Comes with These Guys
Nothing kills your season like an injury to a key starter. Just ask anyone who drafted Joe Burrow or Malik Nabers in 2025.
Injuries will always be part of football. But what if I told you there’s a method to predict some of those issues?
You can never guarantee a healthy roster throughout the season, and you can’t see every injury before it arrives. But we analyze every player's injury risk to identify those most susceptible to missing time in 2026.
Draft Sharks Injury Guide
The Draft Sharks Injury Guide is the most comprehensive NFL injury database you'll find. It’s equipped with the injury history of every player dating back to his collegiate days.
The Injury Predictor accounts for more than 1,000 variables, including positional differences and nuances, to project each player’s injury risk heading into the season.
Each player's injury risk tells us how many games we should project him to miss in 2026 due to injury, as well as his average injuries per season, upcoming injury risk per season, and injury risk per game.
How do we predict injuries?
Injuries will always bring some unpredictability, but building a full injury database and analyzing each injury's part, class, and condition in correlation with re-injury rates allows us to project the likelihood of future issues.
And we’re putting that to use here by highlighting some notable players who hold the highest chance of injury in 2026.
QBs with Elevated Injury Risk
Jordan Love, Packers
QBs don't tend to carry much injury risk, but Love has endured shoulder (twice), knee, groin, elbow, and thumb injuries since 2021. He enters the season as the riskiest player at the position.
Love didn’t miss any games after preseason surgery on his non-throwing hand last year, but a concussion and shoulder injury cost him two in late December. He also sustained a concussion back in 2018 at Utah State.
Love lands at an 82% chance of injury this season.
Bottom Line
Love's injury stands out at what's typically a fairly safe position. But his ADP well into QB2 range mitigates that risk. Green Bay's QB still looks fine as a draft target.
Check out Love's injury history.
Aaron Rodgers, Steelers
Rodgers will turn 43 this season and has the second-most career injuries among active starting QBs with 17.
That’s not surprising, given that he’s entering his 22nd pro season. But Rodgers has added an ankle sprain and MCL injury just since tearing his left Achilles on opening night three years ago.
For a strict pocket passer like Rodgers, lower-body injuries typically aren't as limiting.
But a November wrist fracture last year that caused him to miss time is still a prevalent injury heading into what’s one of his last seasons.
Bottom Line
Rodgers' ADP already sits low in QB2 range. Adding elevated injury risk into a limited upside projection should keep him off of most draft boards.
Check out Rodgers' injury history.
RBs with Elevated Injury Risk
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
It's far from a secret that McCaffrey carries one of the highest injury risks at RB and is already missing training camp time with “tightness.”
The 49ers running back offers the highest upside in fantasy football while simultaneously presenting season-altering downside in his injury risk.
McCaffrey has played fewer than 10 games in three of his past six seasons. Now he finds himself with a 78% chance of injury this season.
Of course, McCaffrey ranked first or second among RBs in PPR points per game in his three healthy seasons over that span. So there’s also risk to passing on him in your draft.
Bottom Line
Elevated injury risk is the reason that McCaffrey's ADP isn't the highest in fantasy football. With that already baked in, you can take the highest-upside player without using the first overall pick to do so.
Check out McCaffrey's injury history.
Omarion Hampton, Chargers
Hampton missed 47% of the games (eight) in his first regular season.
Tagging Hampton with very high injury risk after a fractured ankle might feel premature. But it wasn’t his first ankle fracture. He fractured the same left ankle in the spring before his freshman season at North Carolina. It didn’t cost him time that fall, but that still factors into his injury projection moving forward.
Hampton’s 7.4% chance of injury per game ranks third-highest among all running backs, while his upcoming season fantasy points projection lands as the 11th highest at the position.
Bottom Line
Two things need to go right for Hampton to pay off his RB11 ADP: He needs to remain healthy and be efficient with high usage. Neither thing happened last season. Although we should expect improvement, the elevated injury risk makes him tougher to trust at a Round 2 price.
Check out Hampton's injury history.
Josh Jacobs, Packers
This summer’s groin injury itself isn’t serious, but it’s not ideal that Jacobs has already missed two weeks before September even arrives.
Jacobs has been relatively durable for a RB, playing at least 13 games in every season since entering the league. Still, he has missed time due to injury in five of his seven years.
Add in his age (28) and projected workload (eighth-most carries by our numbers), and leaves Jacobs presents a 67% chance of injury in 2026.
Bottom Line
Jacobs has only eclipsed 16.0 PPR points per game twice in his career, with the last being two seasons ago. A knee sprain and groin pull later, I have a hard time seeing Jacobs pay off a fringe RB1 price tag.
Check out Jacobs' injury history.
Bucky Irving, Buccaneers
After playing through a minor lumbar sprain and participating in a full 17-game rookie season, Irving fell victim to missed time in Year 2.
He suffered a foot sprain and A/C joint sprain during a Week 4 loss that caused him to miss six games. Even though he returned in 2025, the shoulder injury ultimately required offseason surgery.
Irving may not hold the highest injury risk among running backs, but his average of 1.5 injuries per season is the fourth-highest among all running backs projected for at least 200 PPR fantasy points this season.
Bottom Line
The combo of elevated injury risk and modest fantasy projection doesn't make Irving all that attractive. That he's now going at the bottom of RB2 range, though, means you can take a shot if you want.
Check out Irving's injury history.
WRs with Elevated Injury Risk
Drake London, Falcons
London has already stacked up a lengthy injury history through four seasons. Those injuries haven’t forced extended absences, but they elevate his future risk.
Playing in 91% of his career regular-season games masks a history that includes:
- A groin pull
- Two hip sprains
- A hamstring injury
- A shoulder injury
- And a multi-game PCL sprain in 2025.
That’s just with the Falcons. If you go back to London’s time at USC you’ll also find a fractured ankle and tweaked back.
Yet all of it has led to just 10 games missed. The Injury Guide projects him to miss 2.6 games this season.
As the wide receiver with the seventh highest fantasy points projection this season, the injury risk can serve as a tiebreaker between neighboring wide receivers.
Bottom Line
London has an upside projection that could land him among the top WR finishers, yet you might be able to land him late in Round 2. He remains an attractive target.
Check out London's injury history.
Rashee Rice, Chiefs
Rice had a chaotic offseason, including arthroscopic cleanup surgery on his knee that clouds his outlook to begin the season.
He’s also just one year removed from a torn LCL that ended his second year after four games. After playing a combined 12 games over the past two seasons, Rice was always going to land among the league’s higher-risk WRs. His 7.6% chance of injury per game now leads the position.
Bottom Line
Rice is the cheapest of the wide receivers who scored at least 18.0 PPR points per game last season, which is usually a sign that elevated injury risk (among other things) is a massive factor in his price. When it's already factored in to this degree, the risk becomes far more digestible.
Check out Rice's injury history.
A.J. Brown, Patriots
Brown has dealt with plenty of knee issues across his eight NFL seasons. Brown’s injury history contains extensive knee, hamstring, and calf damage.
Last year alone included two hamstring injuries.. But the timing of the first (early August) and the Eagles’ Week 9 bye allowed Brown to miss only one game.
He has played at least 13 games every season but has appeared in 15 or fewer four of the past six years.
At age 29, that history leaves him tagged as a high risk, with a 61% chance of injury this season.
Bottom Line
Brown is the only wide receiver in the league to post at least a 25.0% target share every season since 2020. He now joins an improved passing offense and the elevated injury risk is driving his price down. He's worth the risk at his WR8 pricing.
Check out Brown's injury history.
Mike Evans, 49ers
Evans' first offseason with the 49ers after he signed in free agency has included a nagging quad strain. And that’s far from the first time he’s had leg issues.
Evans suffered a hamstring strain each of the past five seasons. The past two hamstring injuries each cost him three games.
Already past the typical age of meaningful WR productivity at 33, Evans carries obvious risk.
The Injury Guide projects him to miss 2.4 games in his first season away from the Buccaneers.
Bottom Line
Evans saw his production fall off a cliff last season going from 17.2 PPR points per game to just 10.6. His age (33) and elevated injury risk make it hard to get behind his fringe WR2 ADP.
Check out Evans' injury history.
TEs with Elevated Injury Risk
Brock Bowers, Raiders
Bowers leads our fantasy-point projections at TE, but he also carries the position's highest injury risk.
Bowers underwent tightrope (ankle) surgery in his final season at Georgia and somehow missed only two games, the only collegiate season in which he missed any time. He followed that with a rookie season in which he played all 17 games.
But a Week 1 PCL injury and bone bruise in his left knee disrupted Year 2. Bowers tried to play through it before sitting out four mid-season games. He returned for the next eight contests but landed on IR ahead of Week 17 because of the lingering knee issues.
Like McCaffrey -- though to a lesser degree -- Bowers offers massive fantasy upside with significant injury downside.
Bottom Line
There are very few players that have ever offered the upside that Bowers does at a position that is scarce for high-end fantasy production. His elevated injury risk exists, but it doesn't warrant shying away from him in drafts.
Check out Bowers' injury history.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles
Goedert has only played a full season once through eight seasons, all the way back in his rookie year.
He enters Year 9 off back-to-back seasons with leg injuries that cost him a combined eight games.
Goedert is one of four TEs the Injury Guide projects to miss at least three games this season, and his 3.6 projected games missed lead the position.
He can still provide worthwhile production, but his very high injury risk remains a major part of the outlook.
Bottom Line
When a player ages, his production declines, and he holds elevated injury risk, the attractiveness of that player plummets. When that player is one of the 12 most expensive at the position, it really plummets. That's the case with Goedert.
Check out Goedert's injury history.
Sam LaPorta, Lions
LaPorta is looking to play in his first full season since his rookie year, but he’s already at risk of missing Week 1 with a hip injury.
That’s especially bothersome after LaPorta missed seven games last year with a back injury that required season-ending surgery.
That's how LaPorta ends up with a 60% chance of injury in 2026, a risk level that only climbs as Week 1 draws closer.
Bottom Line
With an ADP of TE7, LaPorta finds himself around other tight ends with similar upside. The difference is that those tight ends don't carry the elevated injury risk LaPorta does. He's a fine acquisition at cost, but there are likely safer alternatives with a similar projection.
Check out LaPorta's injury history.
Get A Cheat Sheet That Considers Injuries
Injury risk is built into the player projections that fuel the Draft War Room, the most powerful cheat sheet in fantasy football.
Learn more in this short video:
